The Old Course at St. Andrews will fittingly play host to the 150th Open Championship this week, the year’s fourth and final major. The field goes 156 players deep, as always, featuring all of the biggest names in golf – including Tiger Woods.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 Open Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite (+900) to win this week, and he’s also the No. 1 player in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Jon Rahm is 2nd followed by Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas. Reigning Open champion Collin Morikawa is at No. 27 while the current U.S. Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick ranks 11th.
The Old Course (7,313 yards, par 72) features a bunch of shorter par 4s, wide fairways and huge greens that emphasize 3-putt avoidance. Players can get away with wayward tee shots (to an extent), but they must get creative when approaching these undulating greens.
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Open Championship – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:12 p.m. ET.
Jordan Spieth (+425)
Spieth has as good a record as anyone in this event, with zero missed cuts and 3 top-5s, including a win in 2017. He’s simply a very good links player and has the creativity to pull off tough shots around the greens when he does miss them.
Jon Rahm (+425)
Let’s not forget about Rahm just yet, even though it hasn’t been the banner year that he had in 2021. He’s deadly with his driver, which will make these shorter par 4s much easier for him compared to the field. He just needs to get his putter going.
Tony Finau (+750)
Finau has 1 top-5 to his name in this championship, which came in 2019. However, he’s never finished worse than T-27. He’s coming into this week playing well and he’s shown in the past that he can navigate links courses.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Shane Lowry (+480)
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+425)
- Rory McIlroy (+250)
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Open Championship – Top-10 picks
Xander Schauffele (+180)
Schauffele has won his last 2 starts, including last week’s Scottish Open. He has short odds to finish in the top 10, but I really like his chances. He tied for 2nd in 2018 and has never missed the cut in the Open.
Will Zalatoris (+300)
Zalatoris hasn’t proved he’s figured out links golf yet, but neither did Morikawa before he won last year. I’ll take his ball striking and suddenly strong putting in majors any day, anywhere. In 7 major starts where he didn’t withdraw, Zalatoris has 6 top-10s. That’s good enough for me.
Robert MacIntyre (+1000)
All Bobby Mac does is make cuts in majors, doing so in all 9 of his starts. No major fits his game better than the Open Championship, either. In 2 appearances he has a T-8 and T-6. At +1000, how can’t you take him to make it 3 times in a row?
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Joaquin Niemann (+480)
- Cameron Smith (+300)
Open Championship – Top-20 picks
Tony Finau (+185)
I’m going back to Finau to finish in the top 20, which he’s done in 5 of his 6 starts in the Open Championship.
Max Homa (+220)
Homa tied for 40th in his Open debut last year, and I think he’ll improve on that finish this time around after performing pretty well at last week’s Scottish Open.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Joo-hyung Kim (+450)
- Robert MacIntyre (+380)
Open Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Tony Finau (-110) vs. Louis Oosthuizen (-110)
Both players have good records in the Open Championship, but only 1 of them has had even an average season: Finau. Oosthuizen’s odds everywhere are juiced because of the location of the tournament, which is where he’s won once before and lost in a playoff. But his form this year stinks.
Hideki Matsuyama (-110) vs. Viktor Hovland (-110)
Hovland is terrible on and around the greens, whereas Matsuyama does a great job making up-and-down and avoiding 3-putts. Matsuyama hits it a mile high, which doesn’t work well at St. Andrews, but he’ll find a way to navigate the wind if it picks up.
Jon Rahm (-110) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-110)
I do like Scheffler this week, just not as much as Rahm.
Open Championship – Top left-handed player
Robert MacIntyre (+155)
Brian Harman (+240), Phil Mickelson (+330) and Garrick Higgo (+380) are the only other lefties in this bet. I don’t think Phil or Higgo will contend, and MacIntyre is a way better fit at the Old Course than Harman.
Open Championship – Top Spanish
Jon Rahm (-150)
Sergio Garcia (+330), now on the LIV tour, has missed the cut in 3 of his last 4 PGA Tour starts. I don’t really see him pushing Rahm much in this category, nor will Pablo Loarrazabal (+500) or Adri Arnaus (+500).
Open Championship – First-round leader
Rory McIlroy (+2000)
McIlroy has actually started well in this year’s majors, contrary to recent years. That should continue at St. Andrews, where it could turn into a birdie fest. He’s also in the morning wave on Thursday, which may yield lower scores before the wind picks up and the course dries out.
Cameron Smith (+4000)
Smith ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring average this season, has an early tee time Thursday and makes birdies in bunches. At +4000, he’s an excellent value to put up a low round.
Open Championship – To make the cut
Suggested play in bold.
- Tiger Woods: YES (-140) vs. No (+100)
- Brooks Koepka: NO (+170) vs. Yes (-250)
More expert prop bet predictions
Group D winner: Tony Finau (+330)
This is a really good group, with Louis Oosthuizen (+330), Sam Burns (+330), Joaquin Niemann (+330) and Max Homa (+380) all in it. The close odds should tell you how competitive the scoring in this group should be, but I like Finau.
Top debutant: Joo-hyung Kim (+1500)
Kim is a name to know after finishing 3rd in the Scottish Open, which vaulted him inside the top 40 of the Official World Golf Ranking. Seamus Power (+900) is the favorite among debutants, with Mito Pereira (+1000) and Cameron Young (+1000) also in that group.
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Golfweek:
- Tiger Woods agrees with R&A decision to not invite Greg Norman to 2022 British Open
- Rory McIlroy answers the big question: Another Claret Jug or a Green Jacket?
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