The Toronto Blue Jays (45-40) stop by T-Mobile Park Saturday for the 3rd game of their 4-game series with the Seattle Mariners (43-42) at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle won the first 2 games of the series, 8-3 Friday and 5-2 in 11 innings Saturday.
The Mariners have won 14 of their last 17 games and are riding a 6-game winning streak, while the Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 games.
Season series: Mariners lead 3-2, outscoring the Blue Jays 20-15
Blue Jays at Mariners projected starters
RHP Alek Manoah vs. LHP Robbie Ray
Manoah is 9-3 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP over 16 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-1 setback at Oakland Athletics Monday
- 2022 road splits: 4-2, 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 6 HR, 8.2 K/9 in 8 starts
Ray is 7-6 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 104 1/3 IP across 17 starts.
- Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 12 K in 2-1 home victory vs. Oakland Sunday
- 2022 home splits: 4-2, 2.33 ERA (58 IP, 15 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 5 HR, 10.6 K/9 in 9 starts
Blue Jays at Mariners odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:18 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Blue Jays -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Blue Jays at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 4, Blue Jays 2
Money line
BET 1 UNIT on the MARINERS (+105) because there’s a line freeze in the betting market and Seattle has the pitching edge.
Roughly three-fourths of the bets are on the Blue Jays according to Pregame.com, but their ML price hasn’t budged at Tipico. The oddsmakers not moving Toronto’s ML despite the one-way action suggests they are daring bettors to put more money on the Blue Jays.
Ray pitches much better at T-Mobile Park and has been locked in recently. He is 3-1 in his last 7 outings with a 2.06 ERA and has a 5-game quality start streak. Also, Seattle’s bullpen has better K/BB, swing-and-miss and contact rates and lower xFIP than Toronto’s (per FanGraphs).
BET MARINERS (+105).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the MARINERS -1.5 (+210) ALTERNATE RL, if at all, because of the chunky payout and all 5 Blue Jays-Mariners games this year have been decided by at least 3 runs including an extra-inning affair Friday.
My hesitancy with Seattle’s RL is Manoah is a legit ace and AL Cy Young contender and the Mariners are just 9-17 RL as home favorites.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105) only because it feels “square” since most of the action is on Under per Pregame.com, but the total hasn’t budged and the Over 7.5 (-120) is pricier.
However, both ballclubs have their aces on the bump, the Under is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings and Toronto is 5-11 O/U in Manoah’s 16 starts this season.
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