The Chicago White Sox (38-40) host the Minnesota Twins (46-37) Tuesday at Guaranteed Rate Field for the 2nd of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota won the Monday’s series opener 6-3 in 10 innings that featured a 2-run home run by Twins CF Byron Buxton and a first-ever 8-5 triple play in the bottom of the 7th inning started by Buxton.
The Twins lead the season series 4-0 with a plus-13 run differential on the White Sox in those meetings.
Twins at White Sox projected starters
RHP Chris Archer vs. RHP Michael Kopech
Archer is 2-3 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 61 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Thursday’s 5-3 loss at the Cleveland Guardians with 4 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 6 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the White Sox: One start, a no-decision in Minnesota’s 6-4 home win April 24 with 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 2 K.
Kopech is 2-5 with a 2.78 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 68 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: Lost 4-1 Wednesday at the Los Angeles Angels with 5 1/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 5 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 vs. the Twins: One start, a no-decision in a 2-1 loss in Minnesota April 22 with 5 scoreless IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
Twins at White Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-180) | White Sox -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Twins at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, White Sox 3
Money line
BET the TWINS (+105) only because there’s a suspicious line freeze in the betting market, Archer has been more locked in than Kopech recently, Minnesota’s lineup is more productive vs. right-handed pitching and the Twins’ bullpen ranks higher in advanced pitching numbers.
Nearly 80% of the money is on the White Sox (-130) per Pregame.com, but the line hasn’t budged off the opener. This non-line movement suggests oddsmakers are begging for more pro-White Sox wagers.
Also, Minnesota’s lineup outperforms Chicago’s vs. right-handed pitching in runs per 9 (4.77-3.88), wRC+ (106-102), wOBA (.321-.315) and hard-hit rate (34.7-31.1%), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, Minnesota’s bullpen outranks Chicago’s in ERA (4.22-3.78), WHIP (1.35-1.24), K/BB rate (2.58-2.45), swing-and-miss rates and contact rates, per FanGraphs.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Twins +1.5 (-180) is out of my price range even though the White Sox -1.5 (+145) are just 7-19 RL as home favorites and I’m not confident enough in them to lay it with Minnesota’s alternate RL.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-120) only because Minnesota’s ML is my favorite look in the Twins-White Sox game.
But, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for the total and Twins-White Sox has a 9-16 O/U record when these starters get the nod.
More than 70% of the money is on the Under while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over according to Pregame.com.
It’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors bet a lot more cash than your average Joe.
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