Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings that were recently released were not too kind to the New York Jets’ Zach Wilson.
Of the second-year QBs heading into 2022, Wilson finished as their second-worst. The football analytics outlet only considered the Houston Texans’ Davis Mills lesser.
But PFF made up for it a bit. In an optimistic exercise, Wilson was named as the NFL’s quarterback most likely to see an improvement next season.
According to PFF’s metrics, in terms of “pure dropback passes” which excludes play-action passes and screens, Wilson has an 84.3 percent chance of being better in 2022. Wilson’s improvement figure edged out the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield (77.9%), and a familiar face, the Carolina Panthers’ Sam Darnold (77.2%), for the top spot.
Here’s how PFF detailed Wilson’s chances at improvement next year:
Wilson is the worst returning quarterback in the NFL by EPA per pure dropback, and so he can really only improve. The model projects a 15.7% chance of him remaining at the bottom of the league, but it’s more likely the second-year BYU product will improve with rookie Garrett Wilson and a healthier Elijah Moore in the wide receiver room. The model is also pessimistic about the degree of his improvement, giving him a less than 20% chance of being a top-16 quarterback in the NFL in 2022. There is a chance it is not fully accounting for the typical size of quarterbacks’ second-year leaps.
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