The New York Yankees (56-21) and Cleveland Guardians (39-34) clash in the Friday opener of a 3-game series at Progressive Field. The first pitch in Game 1 is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: New York leads 3-0.
The Yankees are coming off a 2-1 loss at Houston, a solo game kicking off a trip that continues with stops in Pittsburgh and Boston next week. A clicking-through-most-of-June offense has been slowed of late. Over their last 7 games, the Yankees have scored just 3.43 runs per game on a .593 OPS.
The Guardians are coming off back-to-back walk-off comeback wins against the Minnesota Twins and are 3-1 in their last 4 games after a 5-game losing skid. Overall, Cleveland is coming off a big month: the Guardians have played .667 (20-10) ball over their last 30 games.
Yankees at Guardians projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Cole (6-2, 2.99 ERA) has made 15 starts this season. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 87 1/3 IP.
- Has held current Cleveland batters to a whiff-laden .524 OPS.
- Has yielded just 2 runs over his last 20 1/3 IP.
Civale (2-4, 7.20 ERA) is tabbed for his 10th start of the season. He has a 1.60 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 40 IP.
- Missed most of June with a thigh injury. Has allowed 17 base runners and 5 R in 9 IP since returning to the rotation June 21.
- Since 2020, owns a 5.15 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in home starts.
Yankees at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 8:37 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Guardians +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
- Run line (RL): Yankees -1.5 (-125) | Guardians +1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Guardians 4
Money line
Cleveland’s record looks to be a bit inflated by a 14-9 mark in 1-run games. Peg New York as a worthy -210 favorite. PASS on the current tag.
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Run line/Against the spread
Cole allowed 5 home runs in a June 9 clunker against the Twins. He’s rallied with a dominant 0.89 ERA and 12.0 K/9 in 3 starts since. His line against current Cleveland batters in compelling.
In their 7-game offensive slide, the Yanks have gone just 7-for-32 (.218) with runners in scoring position. Statcast quality-of-contact figures are bullish on New York’s offense and bearish on Cleveland’s.
TAKE NEW YORK -1.5 (-125).
Over/Under
Cole is a wild card in this play, but the OVER 8.5 (-102) has a sliver of value leverage. Its a play fading both bullpens and favoring a powerful New York offense against a fly-ball inducing Civale.
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