The PGA Tour is in Silvis, Ill., this week for the 2022 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. It’s one of the easier courses on tour and yields some of the lowest scores of any event, so we should see plenty of birdies from the players in the field.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 John Deere Classic odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
It’s a comparatively weaker field this week with no players in the top 10 of this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings in the field. Denny McCarthy is the highest-ranked player at No. 31 overall. Webb Simpson, Adam Hadwin and Jason Day are among the other favorites teeing it up this week.
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John Deere Classic – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 4:17 p.m. ET.
Scott Stallings (+700)
Stallings has finished inside the top 5 here once, but he also has 3 top-20s in his last 5 trips to TPC Deere Run. In a weaker field, Stallings could emerge as one of the top contenders on Sunday after playing well at the Travelers Championship.
Webb Simpson (+320)
Simpson is the betting favorite after Daniel Berger withdrew, and I like his chances to end the week in the top 5. He hasn’t had the best season, but he tied for 13th last week after a final-round 71 caused him to slip down the leaderboard.
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John Deere Classic – Top-10 picks
Sahith Theegala (+280)
Theegala nearly claimed his first PGA Tour win last week in the Travelers, but a double-bogey on the 72nd hole cost him. He’s suffered letdowns before and I think he’ll bounce back with a strong week at TPC Deere Run by finishing in the top 10.
Denny McCarthy (+300)
McCarthy missed the cut in his last 2 starts in this event and he also failed to make the cut last week at the Travelers Championship. But that was only after he posted 4 top-30s in his last 5 starts, including 2 top-7 finishes. He’ll get back on track this week.
John Deere Classic – Top-20 picks
Adam Schenk (+230)
Schenk performs well at TPC Deere Run and has top-10 finishes in his last 2 starts at this tournament — T-4 last year and T-6 in 2019. He plays a lot and has 2 top-30 finishes in his last 3 starts, so I think this is the week he cracks the top 20 for the first time since the Wells Fargo Championship in May.
Ryan Moore (+400)
Moore was out with an injury from February to June and since returning he’s made the cut in each of his last 2 starts, including a T-35 finish at the RBC Canadian Open. He has an excellent track record here, winning the event in 2016 and tying for 2nd last year – along with 5 other top-25s.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Patton Kizzire (+330)
John Deere Classic – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
- Charles Howell (+100) vs. Maverick McNealy (-120)
- Webb Simpson (-135) vs. Adam Hadwin (+115)
- Scott Stallings (-110) vs. Nick Hardy (-110)
I like getting Howell at plus money after seeing the way he played at Travelers and also knowing his history at this course (3 top-25s in his last 3 appearances).
Simpson is slightly favored over Hadwin, who are the 2 players with the shortest odds to win this week. Simpson hasn’t played here since 2010 but he found a groove last week.
Stallings is one of my picks this week so I’m taking him to beat out Hardy, who hasn’t played this event in the last 2 years.
John Deere Classic – Top Australian
Cameron Davis (+220)
Jason Day (+175) is the favorite among the 8 Australians in the field this week, with Davis a close second. Day struggled last week at a course he usually plays well at (TPC River Highlands) so things are trending in the wrong direction. Davis could legitimately win this week.
John Deere Classic – First-round leader
Cameron Champ (+6000)
With his length off the tee, Champ can pile up the birdies in a hurry. I don’t trust him to play well all 4 rounds, but firing a sub-65 round on Thursday is certainly possible. He was tied for 7th after Round 1 last year with an opening 66.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group C winner: Scott Stallings (+320)
The other players in this group are Patrick Rodgers (+320), Nick Hardy (+330), Adam Long (+350) and Cameron Davis (+380). Davis is admittedly tempting at +380, and Rodgers played well at the Travelers Championship, but Stallings is my pick to win this group.
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