The New York Mets (45-24) begin an interleague back-to-back with the Houston Astros (41-25) Tuesday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes winning 3 of 4 at home vs. the Miami Marlins Friday-Monday.
Houston is 6-4 SU in the last 10 and has won 2 consecutive series 2-1 at the Texas Rangers and then at home vs. the Chicago White Sox last weekend.
Tuesday’s Mets-Astros meeting is their 1st of the season and these teams have another back-to-back in N.Y. scheduled June 28-29.
Mets at Astros projected starters
RHP Trevor Williams vs. RHP Jose Urquidy
Williams is 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 35 2/3 IP over 5 starts and 7 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 5-4 win at the Los Angeles Dodgers June 5 with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.
- Last 2 outings have been relief appearances with 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 5 K vs. the Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee Brewers.
Urquidy is 5-3 with a 4.99 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 61 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Houston’s 4-3 win at the Texas Rangers Tuesday with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 home splits: 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 4 HR and 7.5 K/9 in 4 starts.
Mets at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
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Mets at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Astros 5
Money line
BET a half-unit on the METS (+110) because they are more productive vs. right-handed pitching than the Astros (-135) and there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market with the presumed sharp money coming in on N.Y.
The Mets are 30-14 SU against righty starters while the Astros are 27-18 SU. Also, N.Y.’s lineup is better than Houston’s vs. right-handed pitching in runs per 9 (5.4-4.7), wRC+ (118-114) and wOBA (.330-.322), per FanGraphs.
Also, around 70% of the money is on the Mets whereas nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Astros, according to VegasInsider.com. Typically, it’s better to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors are putting up a lot more dough than your average Joe.
BET only a half-unit on the METS (+110) since the pitching matchup is a wash and the Astros are one of the best teams in the American League.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Mets +1.5 (-180) is the right side because they are 22-13 RL on the road. But, N.Y.’s insurance is far too expensive and the alternate RL is a no-go since the Astros are 7-2 RL as underdogs. Maybe if the Mets had a better starter on the mound, I’d “sprinkle” on their alternate RL.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-135) since neither starter is a top-of-the-rotation guy and both lineups are stacked and rake right-handed pitching. Also, the weather forecast is predicting hitter-friendly conditions including a 93° night with 11 mph winds blowing out to right-center field.
However, Minute Maid Park is a pitcher-friendly venue, which helps explain Houston’s 10-18-1 O/U record at home. Plus the Astros are 18-38-1 O/U as favorites.
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