The Detroit Tigers (26-40) head to Fenway Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the Boston Red Sox (36-31) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games. The Tigers won back-to-back weekend games vs. the Texas Rangers to win their 3-game set.
Boston is 6-4 SU in the last 10, including 3 consecutive 2-1 series victories vs. the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Red Sox lead the season series against the Tigers 2-1 with a plus-2 run differential in those meetings.
Tigers at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Alex Faedo vs. RHP Josh Winckowski
Faedo is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 40 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Lost 13-0 Wednesday at home vs. the Chicago White Sox with 3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
- This is the rookie’s 1st start vs. Boston.
Winckowski is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA (8 IP, 4 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 7 K in 2 starts vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and A’s.
- 2022 minor league stats: 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 9 starts for Boston’s Triple-A affiliate.
Tigers at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:07 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Tigers +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Red Sox -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Tigers at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 4, Red Sox 3
Money line
LEAN TIGERS (+155) because they have a slight edge in the pitching matchup, there’s a line freeze in the betting market and this isn’t a profitable spot for the Red Sox (-190). Detroit’s RL has better value but the Tigers cannot hit right-handed pitching.
The starting pitching matchup is a toss-up but Detroit’s bullpen is 5th in both FIP (3.34) and WAR (3.0) while Boston is 16th in FIP (3.93) and 18th in WAR (1.0), according to FanGraphs.
Also, nearly 90% of the cash is on the Red Sox but the line hasn’t budged off the opener, per Pregame.com. This line freeze suggests that oddsmakers are confident in their pricing and are inviting more pro-Tigers action.
Finally, Boston is just 5-6 SU as home favorites of -150 or greater vs. right-handed starters with a minus-26.0% return on investment (ROI).
It’s only a LEAN to the TIGERS (+155) since their RL is going for a cheap price.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET a third of a unit on the TIGERS +1.5 (-130) based on the previous analysis and the Red Sox -1.5 (+105) are 4-7 RL in the situation described above with a minus-24.1% ROI.
That said, I’d go light on the TIGERS +1.5 (-130), if at all, since they are in the midst of another disappointing year and their lineup ranks last in BB/K rate, wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs. Also, the Under 9.5 (-120) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
BET a half-unit on the UNDER 9.5 (-120) only because we are getting to the party late on the total. Tigers-Red Sox opened at a 10-run total but has been lowered to the current price.
However, Detroit’s lineup scores just 2.7 runs per 9 vs. right-handed starters and the Tigers are 16-29-2 O/U against righty starters with a plus-22.3% ROI toward the Under.
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