The Milwaukee Brewers (34-28) face the New York Mets (40-22) Tuesday in their 3-game series opener at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee snapped an 8-game losing skid with a 4-1 win Sunday at the Washington Nationals.
New York won the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Los Angeles Angels 4-1 on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, but the Mets are just 5-5 SU in the last 10.
Tuesday’s game is the 1st of 6 meetings between the teams this season. The Brewers won last year’s series 4-2, outscoring the Mets 25-14 in the 6 games.
Brewers at Mets projected starters
RHP Adrian Houser vs. RHP Chris Bassitt
Houser is 3-6 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Lost 10-0 Wednesday at home vs. the Philadelphia Phillies with 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
Bassitt is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP over 12 starts.
- Last start: Lost 13-2 Wednesday at the San Diego Padres with 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
Brewers at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Mets -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-165) | Mets -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Brewers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Brewers 3
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the METS (-155).
The Brewers (+125) have played terribly this month while the Mets are a lot more productive vs. right-handed pitching and 8-0 SU when playing after a rest day.
Milwaukee’s lineup is 28th in both wRC+ (76) and wOBA (.278) and 27th in WAR (0.1) in June, according to FanGraphs.
New York’s lineup is better than Milwaukee’s against righty pitching in wRC+ (120-102), wOBA (.333-.318), BB/K rate (0.41-0.36) and runs per 9 (5.50-4.64).
But, this is a sharp price so I’d only “flat-BET” N.Y.’s ML. If your standard unit is $100 then bet that on the METS (-155) to earn a $64.52 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
New York’s ML is pricey enough and it’s probably not smart to chase the value of the Mets -1.5 (+133) considering the pitching matchup in this game is more-or-less even and the Brewers +1.5 (-165) are 6-2 RL as underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (+100).
Sharp line movement has steamed the total up from an 8-run opener (per Pregame.com) and these teams have a combined 14-8 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (+100) because Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly venue (ranked 21st in park factor) and Brewers-Mets is 1-8 O/U in their last 9 meetings.
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