Draymond Green’s awful deep shooting against the Boston Celtics didn’t just start in the NBA Finals. For the entire postseason, he’s shooting a career-low 18% from three. It’s been a downright dreadful display of shot-making, even for someone who has never been a good 3-point shooter.
But unlike Ben Simmons, the Brooklyn Nets’ defensive wunderkind who refuses to shoot threes despite the pleas of everyone, Green is a willing shooter when left open – even if hesitant. And sometimes he hits them, famously knocking down 6-of-8 threes against the Cavs in the 2016 Finals. Two rounds before that, he made eight in a single game.
With eight threes, Draymond Green has tied the franchise record for most three-pointers made in a playoff game.
— Warriors PR (@WarriorsPR) May 8, 2016
Those days seem like a century ago as Green attempts fewer threes per game (1.6) than in any other postseason in his career. His regular season average of 1.2 was the first time he finished below two attempts as a starter in the NBA.
However, against the Celtics, his average is up to 2.3 attempts. In total, he’s hoisted nine from deep through four games…and he hasn’t made single one. That’s precisely why I’m willing to bet he’ll knock a three down sooner than later. Well, that and the incredibly enticing odds.
Tipico Sportsbook is offering +200 odds for Green to make a three-pointer Monday in Game 5. For that price, the law of averages is talking to me. Eventually, he’s got to make one of those backpack J’s, right?
Can’t take any chances, @BabersGreen pic.twitter.com/uwzI92Hjv5
— BetFTW (@Bet_ForTheWin) June 13, 2022
Green shot better than 29% from three in the regular season, his best average since 2017-18. So basically, he can get you at least two made 3-pointers out of every 10 attempts. Even with that number down in the postseason, he’s long over due for a make.
Out of 27 career playoff series, the only time Green has gone an entire series without making a three was this year’s conference semis against the Grizzlies. But he only attempted six threes that entire six-game series and went three games without a single attempt. Against Boston, he’s getting and taking more open looks. So even if he doesn’t get a three to fall in Game 5, I’d probably come back to this bet in Game 6 because, I mean, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
This isn’t really a bet on Green being a good shooter. This is a value bet on a guy who’s being given every opportunity to cash it in. Besides, if Magic Johnson’s triple-double prediction for Green is to come true, he’ll need the few extra points.