The Minnesota Twins (35-27) head to T-Mobile Park Monday to begin a 3-game series against the Seattle Mariners (27-33) with first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota is 5-5 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 2-1 home series win vs. the Tampa Bay Rays last weekend.
Seattle lost the rubber match of a 3-game home set with the Boston Red Sox Sunday, but is 6-4 SU in the last 10.
Season series: Tied 2-2, but the Twins have a plus-8 run differential.
Twins at Mariners projected starters
RHP Chris Archer vs. RHP Chris Flexen
Archer is 1-2 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 44 1/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Won 8-1 Wednesday at home vs. the New York Yankees with 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 2 K.
Flexen is 2-7 with a 4.35 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 62 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Lost 4-1 Tuesday at the Houston Astros with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K.
- 2022 vs. the Twins: One start, a 4-0 loss in Minnesota April 11 with 4 1/3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB and 3 K.
Twins at Mariners odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:18 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Twins -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Mariners -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+155) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Twins at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 7, Mariners 4
Money line
BET a half-unit the TWINS (-108).
Despite Minnesota being 1st in the AL Central and Seattle being 4th in the AL West, there isn’t much of a difference between these 2 teams so this is a sharp number.
However, the Twins are 7-4 SU as road underdogs and slightly better than the Mariners (-112) in the 3 most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting).
More importantly, Minnesota’s ML is being moved by sharp action. Seattle opened as -115 favorites (per Pregame.com) and nearly 60% of the bets placed at Tipico Sportsbook are on the Mariners.
But, a slight majority of the money is on the Twins and the oddsmakers have reacted by lowering Seattle’s ML from the opener. These betting splits indicate the professionals are betting on the Twins while the public is on the Mariners.
BET the TWINS (-108).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Two of the Twins-Mariners meetings this season have been decided by 1 run, Minnesota is just 6-11 RL as road favorites while Seattle is 8-2 RL as home underdogs. The Twins’ RL would need to be north of +170 to take a stab.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-115).
Both starters are bottom-of-the-rotation guys who grade poorly across several advanced pitching metrics and both lineups are top seven in wRC+ (per FanGraphs).
Also, Twins-Mariners are 4-1 O/U in their last 5 meetings in Seattle and T-Mobile Park is surprisingly more hitter-friendly this year, ranking 11th in park factor.
My hesitation with the OVER 8.5 (-115) is it almost feels too easy and the Mariners are 3-8 O/U in Flexen’s 11 starts.
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