The Boston Celtics host the Golden State Warriors Friday at the TD Garden for Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Tip-off is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET (ABC) and Boston leads the best-of-7 series 2-1. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Celtics Game 4 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Boston boat raced Golden State 116-100 in Game 3 Wednesday, outscoring the Warriors in 3 of the 4 quarters and outperforming them in 3 of the “4 factors”.
Warriors’ 2-time MVP Stephen Curry is scoring a Finals-best 31.3 points per game, but the Celtics are leading all “4 factors” and have 5 rotation players shooting 40.0% or better from behind the arc in this series.
The Celtics are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series, and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U).
Warriors at Celtics odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Celtics -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Warriors +3.5 (-107) | Celtics -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 214.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Warriors at Celtics key injuries
Celtics
- C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable
Warriors
- PG Stephen Curry (ankle) probable
- SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
- SG Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
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Warriors at Celtics picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 111, Celtics 105
Money line
LEAN towards a “sprinkle” on the WARRIORS (+133), but Golden State plus the points is the much better option.
Most of the “talking heads” are out on the Warriors and think the Celtics (-165) are going to cakewalk to a title.
Curry tweaked his ankle scrambling for a loose ball, the Celtics overwhelmed the Warriors in Game 3 athletically and beat Golden State by double-digits despite Klay Thompson and Steph combining for 56 points.
However, it was only 1 game, and if there is any team that could recover from a blowout loss in the playoffs, it’s Golden State. Curry and Thompson could both erupt, and Warriors wing Andrew Wiggins and SG Jordan Poole have the talent to step up and hit big shots.
The bottom line is there are too many convenient arguments for the Celtics, and it feels too obvious. There’s a smidge of value on the WARRIORS (+133), but their spread is a sharper play.
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Against the spread
BET the WARRIORS +3.5 (-107).
There’s a line freeze in the betting market as 75% of the action and nearly 90% of the cash is on the Celtics -3.5 (-115), according to Tipico Sportsbook.
But, that number hasn’t budged off the opener, and Boston being more expensive despite the betting splits is suspicious, to say the least.
Also, there’s something to be said about the theory of “the NBA wants a longer series”. So, whether it be organic or funky, Golden State could get the benefit of the whistles Friday.
The WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Something to consider: If betting Golden State’s spread, look to bet Boston in-game should the Warriors get up double-digits since this would lead to a fat “middle” opportunity.
Over/Under
BET 1 unit on the FIRST-HALF OVER 108.5 (-120).
There has been a lot of landslide victories in these playoffs, and the pace dies down majorly in blowouts. Warriors-Celtics Game 3 was trending to go way Over the total, but there were just 34 points scored in the fourth quarter because Boston had the game in hand.
There are a bunch of stylistic factors that could lead to a fast tempo and a ton of offense in Game 4. Boston’s best frontcourt defender — big Robert Williams III — has dealt with a knee injury for weeks and might be limited with only a day off in between Games 3 and 4.
The Celtics are overwhelming the Warriors athletically, and Golden State’s best counter is to pick up the pace and try to create transition 3-pointers. Also, I don’t think Boston’s defense is going to shut down Klay and Steph, and several Warriors are due for bounce-back performances.
BET the FIRST-HALF OVER 108.5 (-120) because playoff games turn into half-court slug matches in the 2nd half.
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