The NBA Finals head to Beantown Wednesday for Game 3 when the Golden State Warriors play the Boston Celtics. The series is tied 1-1. Tip-off at TD Garden is set for 9 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Celtics Game 3 odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State evened the series by stomping Boston 107-88 in Game 2 Sunday. The Warriors had their patent 3rd quarter onslaught, outscoring the Celtics 35-14 and Steph Curry erupted for a game-high 29 points (5-for-12 from behind the arc) with 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals.
Boston’s All-Star wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown struggled in the Bay Area, both shooting 37.5% or less from the field with Tatum averaging 20.5 points per game (PPG) and Brown putting up just 20.0 PPG.
These teams are tied 1-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series, have split the “four factors” and the total is 1-1 Over/Under (O/U).
Warriors at Celtics odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Celtics -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +3.5 (-110) | Celtics -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 212.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Warriors at Celtics key injuries
Celtics
- C Robert Williams III (knee) questionable
Warriors
- None
[tipico]
Warriors at Celtics picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 113, Warriors 106
Money line
LEAN CELTICS (-160) only because I prefer to lay the points with Boston at a cheaper price.
However, the Celtics have avenged all six of their playoff losses this year with wins and have an average margin of victory of 15.5 PPG in those contests.
After all the hoopla in the media about the referees between Games 2 and 3, the Celtics should get more favorable officiating now that the series is back in Boston.
A few prominent Celtics sycophants in sports media were bemoaning Warriors PF Draymond Green‘s aggressiveness and intensity in Game 2. It wouldn’t be surprising for the officials to give Draymond an early technical foul to try and control the game.
Furthermore, Golden State struggled to stay out of foul trouble during the regular season and ranked 23rd in non-garbage time defensive free-throw rate, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The Celtics attempted just 3 field goals at the rim in Game 2 and bricked a bunch of contested mid-range jumpers. Boston’s offense should attack the paint more and put pressure on the referees to make calls.
Boston also peed down its leg in Game 2 with an absurd 23.4% non-garbage time turnover rate (TOV%) compared to Golden State’s 10.4% TOV%. The Warriors outscored the Celtics 33-15 in points off of turnovers in Game 2.
Boston’s mistakes are very correctable but it’s only a LEAN to the CELTICS (-160) because their spread provides a better value.
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Against the spread
BET CELTICS -3.5 (-110) based on the prior rationale and because the team that wins outright also covers the spread a vast majority of the time.
Boston has covered 12 of its last 14 games following an outright loss and is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. the Warriors. There’s also a notable line freeze in the betting market.
More than 70% of the cash is on Golden State according to Tipico Sportsbook, but this line hasn’t budged off the opener. Oddsmakers typically adjust the line according to the market movement so that not happening here suggests the House wants more pro-Warriors money.
BET CELTICS -3.5 (-110).
Over/Under
BET OVER 212.5 (-107).
Boston’s best defender in the frontcourt — big Robert Williams III — has battled with a knee injury all postseason and played just 14 minutes in Game 2. If Williams’ health is compromised then it should be easier for the Warriors in the paint.
If Draymond continues playing basketball like football in Game 3 then he’s going to get into foul trouble. Golden State’s defense is much easier to score on when Draymond is off the floor.
Several quality scorers on both benches have struggled through the first 2 games of the Finals. I’m expecting big games out of Brown and Warriors SG Klay Thompson eventually.
Game 2 went Under the total (213.5) by 18.5 points. But, the pace sped up from Game 1 to 2, which went Under because Golden State was spanking Boston and that game died out in the fourth quarter.
We should see a more competitive Game 3 and our OVER 212.5 (-107) ticket could cash on late free throws.
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