The Seattle Mariners (24-30) visit Minute Maid Park Monday to start a 3-game set with American League West co-tenant Houston Astros (35-19). First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle has won 3 consecutive series vs. the Astros May 27-29, at the Baltimore Orioles last week and at the Texas Rangers this past weekend. The Mariners are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games and has won 2 straight road series at the Oakland Athletics Monday-Wednesday and at the Kansas City Royals Friday-Sunday.
Season series: The Astros lead 5-4 but the Mariners have a plus-9 in run differential in those meetings.
Mariners at Astros projected starters
LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Cristian Javier
Ray is 4-6 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 9-2, Wednesday at the Orioles with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
- 2022 road splits: 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 in 6 starts.
Javier is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 41 IP across 6 starts and 4 relief appearances.
- Last start: No-decision in 3-1 win at the Athletics Tuesday with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mariners: One start — a 4-0 home win May 3 — with 5 1/3-scoreless IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
Mariners at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-145) | Astros -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Mariners at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Mariners 3
Money line
“Flat” BET 1 unit on the ASTROS (-180) since this is a pricey ML. But, Houston is 14-4 SU both as a home favorite and vs. left-handed starters and the Astros have edges in starting and relief pitching.
Ray is the reigning AL Cy Young winner but has regressed year over year and Javier’s basic and advanced pitching numbers are superior.
Houston’s bullpen outperforms Seattle’s in ERA (4.35-2.64), FIP (4.26-3.22), home run per 9-inning rate (1.42-0.52) and most contact rates, per FanGraphs. Seattle’s bullpen could also be taxed since the Mariners have played in four straight 1-run games
Houston’s ML has been raised 20 cents on the dollar off the opener by heavy sharp action, according to Pregame.com. This movement is significant since Mariners-Astros is a division game and Ray is Seattle’s ace while Javier is a “back-of-the-rotation” guy for Houston.
If your standard wager is $100 then BET that on the ASTROS (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN ASTROS -1.5 (+120)
Eight of their 9 meetings with the Mariners have been decided by at least 2 runs. However, Seattle is 21-14 RL as an underdog and Houston is 20-25 RL as a favorite.
There’s not a ton of value in the ASTROS -1.5 (+120) but that’s the only way to bet the RL.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-122) for 1 unit.
There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market since nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas 70% of the action is on the Over, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s better to follow the money because professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.
Minute Maid Park is also a very pitcher-friendly 26th in park factor and the Astros are 5-13 O/U as home favorites and 1-5 O/U in Javier’s 6 starts.
For what it’s worth, the UNDER 8.5 (-122) is my favorite look in this game.
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