Dan Campbell doesn’t have much of a track record as the Detroit Lions head coach. Aside from a modestly successful stint as the interim coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2015, Campbell has one season of data to build off. And that season saw his Lions finish 3-13-1 and earn the second-worst record in the league.
So when the analysts at Pro Football Focus extrapolated the data into ranking coaches and projecting the coaching impact on the final record, Campbell’s status isn’t very good. PFF ranked him 23rd in that capacity, but the ranking isn’t very important because of the limited data and criteria PFF processed to come up with it.
The more interesting part, to me anyway, is PFF’s analysis of projecting wins for coaches if they had an average NFL roster. It’s a range of wins for all 26 returning head coaches. Campbell gets a slider from 8.1 to 8.9 wins if he had what PFF would consider a perfectly average NFL roster.
There are a few different ways to process this data. One is that the 2021 Lions did not field anything close to an average roster. Between the start of the rebuild and rampant injuries, Detroit’s roster wasn’t good enough to achieve last season. Hard to fault Campbell for that, and PFF largely did not,
While Campbell is just one season into his head coaching tenure with a roster lacking talent, it is difficult to have an optimistic view of his performance. It is worth noting that quarterback Jared Goff underperforming relative to his contract may be depressing Campbell’s offensive results.
Second, an average team would be expected to win exactly 8.5 games–half of the 17-game schedule. That’s the mean range for Campbell’s projection, which makes sense.
The acknowledgment that salaries are factored in instantly puts Campbell and the rebuilding Lions at an extreme disadvantage. Goff, Trey Flowers, Jamie Collins and Tyrell Williams were all massively overpaid veteran disappointments in 2021. Only Goff remains, which should help positively impact the judging criteria PFF is using here.
Campbell also received a smaller range of possible outcomes with an average roster than most coaches did, again reflecting the relative lack of data points to consider. Carolina’s Matt Rhule and Robert Saleh of the Jets, two other second-year coaches from teams that didn’t fare well in 2021, have much broader ranges in the same coaching tier.
As is the case with much of the questions surrounding the Lions and Campbell, winning a lot more games in 2022 will radically alter both the conversation and data dynamics. Until that happens, of course Campbell won’t compare well to other coaches based on track records.