The Los Angeles Dodgers (35-17) host the New York Mets (35-19) Saturday at Dodger Stadium for the 3rd game of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. beat N.Y. 6-1 Saturday thanks to a 6-inning, 5-strikeout scoreless outing from SP Tyler Anderson.
Season series: Dodgers lead 2-0
The Dodgers won the series opener 2-0 Thursday. Both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Mets at Dodgers projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs. RHP Walker Buehler
Peterson is 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 29 2/3 IP across 5 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 1 K in 13-5 home win vs. Washington Nationals Monday
- Never faced Dodgers before
Buehler is 6-1 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-5 home loss to Pittsburgh Pirates Monday
- 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 3 ER) 10 H, 3 BB, 18 K across 2 starts
Mets at Dodgers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:24 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Dodgers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-135) | Dodgers -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Dodgers 4
Money line
LEAN METS (+155) because of the chunky payout, New York’s lineup hits righties better than the Los Angeles lineup does against left-handed pitching and there’s a suspicious line freeze in the betting market.
Roughly 75% of the money is on the Dodgers (-190), according to Pregame.com, but the line hasn’t budged off the opener. That tells us the sportsbooks are confident in their price and welcome more action on L.A.
But the Mets have some value here since their lineup ranks in the top 5 in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate vs. right-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.
Also, all 5 home runs allowed by Buehler have come at Dodger Stadium. He has a 4.55 ERA (1.67 road ERA) and 1.58 WHIP (0.85 road WHIP) in 6 home starts.
It’s only a LEAN to the METS (+155) because their RL is cheap.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET METS +1.5 (-135) based on the previous analysis and because they are 6-3 RL as road underdogs and there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the RL-betting market.
Nearly two-thirds of the money is on the Mets, but more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Dodgers -1.5 (+110), according to Pregame.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money when it’s opposite of the public since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe.
BET METS +1.5 (-135).
Over/Under
PASS.
There are a bunch of Over-friendly betting trends and most of the public is backing the Over 8.5 (-125) hence it being more expensive.
But I hate following a crowd in sports betting, so I’ll stick with the Mets’ RL.
PASS.
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