Fade the White Sox in the American League Central before they’re no longer division favorites

If you were waiting to bet on the Twins or Guardians to win the division, this might be your best chance.

The problem with betting against the White Sox to win the American League Central is how counterintuitive it feels.

A lineup with Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn should be among the toughest to slow down, right? And a pitching staff with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Liam Hendriks, Kendall Graveman and Michael Kopech should hardly give up too many runs.

Then you watch this Sox team play and wonder how they were ever favorites at all.

Chicago ranks 25th in the league in WHIP,  28th in runs scored, 27th in OPS (21st in OPS with runners in scoring position) and dead last in walks. In simpler terms: the Sox struggle to get on base, they struggle to score runs when they do get on base, they struggle at working the count and they struggle to keep their opponents off the bases. It’s the exact opposite of a winning recipe.

And it’s about to get a lot more challenging with Tim Anderson’s groin injury expected to sideline the All-Star shortstop for three weeks. Add in the fact Jimenez and Lynn are still on the injured list and you begin to wonder how a team that’s hovered around .500 through the first quarter of the season maintains that mark through June.

It probably won’t. Yet, somehow, the Sox are still the favorites to win their division (-125 at Tipico Sportsbook). Just don’t expect those odds to remain that short for much longer.

Chicago faces one of the toughest stretches of its schedule over the next three weeks and will have to go it without their biggest pieces available. Here’s a quick glance at their upcoming opponents:

  • June 1-2: At Toronto Blue Jays
  • June 3-5: At Tampa Bay Rays
  • June 7-9: Vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
  • June 10-12: Vs. Texas Rangers
  • June 13-15: At Detroit Tigers
  • June 17-19: At Houston Astros
  • June 20-22: Vs. Toronto Blue Jays
  • June 23-26: Vs. Baltimore Orioles
  • June 27-29: At Los Angeles Angels

The most optimistic view says the White Sox will win their series against Detroit, Baltimore and Texas. That still leaves 17 games against likely playoff teams in which Chicago should be viewed as underdogs—even if the moneyline begs to differ.

Now consider the AL Central standings as June begins:

Team Record Win % GB Odds To Win Division
Minnesota Twins 30-21 .588 – +125
Chicago White Sox 23-24 .489 5.0 -125
Cleveland Guardians 21-24 .467 6.0 +1000
Detroit Tigers 19-30 .388 10.0 +8000
Kansas City Royals 16-32 .333 12.5 +8000

The Twins, and even the Guardians, look like pretty solid bets here. That’s not to say Cleveland is going to win the division. Their chances just look a bit stronger than Chicago’s at the moment before June’s schedule has a chance to knock the South Siders further back of Minnesota.

Getting plus money on a Twins team that could have an eight or nine game lead in a few days is worth anyone’s attention. Especially when it seems like they could become the odds-on favorites in a week or so.

That just doesn’t make them a sure bet. Oddsmakers are still unwilling to remove the “favorite” status from the Sox for two big reasons. For starters: that high-octane Sox lineup mentioned above really hasn’t played that many games together. The brief history we do have with all of those names on the field proves they can be an absolute force.

The other reason is just the general weirdness of baseball itself.

Atlanta’s 2021 season could’ve—and probably should’ve—been derailed last year after Ronald Acuna Jr. tore his ACL in early July. Instead, the Braves went 44-28 after the All-Star break, won the National League East and stormed their way to a World Series victory over the Astros in six games.

The crucial difference with these White Sox, however, is that Atlanta was never further than eight games back in their division—a mark it sank to on June 16.

That could mean there’s a time coming up soon when buying low on Chicago makes sense. This is not that time. Grab the Twins’ plus odds while you still can.

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