The Minnesota Twins (30-21) meet the Detroit Tigers (19-30) Wednesday for 4th game of their 5-game set at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit has won 2 of the first 3 games of this series, taking the series opener 7-5 Monday then splitting a doubleheader Tuesday, losing the first 8-2 and winning the second game 4-0.
The Twins lead the season series with the Tigers 6-3 and Minnesota has a plus-13 run differential in those meetings.
Twins at Tigers projected starters
RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Tarik Skubal
Ober is 1-1 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 10-7 home win vs. the Kansas City Royals Friday with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Tigers: No-decision in 7-1 home win April 28 with 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 51 2/3 IP across 9 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in 4-3 home win vs. the Cleveland Guardians Thursday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Twins: No-decision in 7-1 loss at Minnesota April 28 with 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
Twins at Tigers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Twins -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Tigers -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+145) | Tigers +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Twins at Tigers picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Tigers 3
Money line
BET the TWINS (-117) because they have a significant edge in hitting and most of the market is betting the Tigers, per Pregame.com, and I love the idea of fading a public team that’s 11 games below .500.
Detroit’s lineup is 29th in wOBA (.274) and dead-last in both wRC+ (78) and WAR (minus-0.8), according to FanGraphs. The Tigers are the only lineup that has a WAR below plus-1.5.
Minnesota’s lineup is ranked 8th or better in WAR (plus-8.0), wRC+ (112), wOBA (.321), hard-hit rate (42.1%) and BB/K rate (0.43).
Ober’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. the Tigers are better than Skubal’s against the Twins. Ober has a better hard-hit rate, exit velocity, whiff rate and chase rate than Skubal according to Statcast.
Minnesota has won 4 consecutive Ober starts and 4 consecutive Ober starts vs. American League Central foes.
BET 1 unit on the TWINS (-117).
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN TWINS -1.5 (+145) because the gap between these two lineups is massive and 3 of Detroit’s 4 losses in Skubal starts have been by at least 5 runs.
Minnesota’s bullpen also has better swing-and-miss and contact rates and Detroit’s second-best bullpen ERA (2.91) is due in large part to a fortunate .249 BABIP (ranked 29th).
Minnesota’s ML is my favorite wager in this game but there’s some value in the TWINS -1.5 (+145).
Over/Under
PASS.
This feels like a sharp total, Comerica Park is a very hitter-friendly 6th in park factor but the Tigers are 0-4-1 O/U in Skubal’s 5 starts.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]