The Chicago Cubs (18-26) travel crosstown to play the Chicago White Sox (22-22) Saturday to start a 2-game interleague series at Guaranteed Rate Field. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Both teams had Friday off. The Cubs are coming off a split of a 4-game series at the Cincinnati Reds early in the week. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games.
The White Sox lost the rubber match of their 3-game home set vs. the Boston Red Sox Thursday. Prior to that series, Chicago took 2 of 3 at the New York Yankees. The White Sox are 5-5 in their last 10.
Season series: White Sox lead 2-0
Cubs at White Sox projected starters
RHP Keegan Thompson vs. RHP Johnny Cueto
Thompson is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 35 IP over 2 starts and 8 relief appearances.
- Last start: 7-0 home win vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates May 17 with 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- Pitched once since then, picking up a win after 3 innings of relief Sunday against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. He allowed 1 run on 2 hits with no walks, while striking out 4.
Cueto is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA (12 IP, 0 ER), 8 H, 4 BB and 12 K in 2 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Chicago’s 3-1 win at the Yankees Sunday with 6-scoreless IP, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Cubs: One start, a 4-3 loss with San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Surrendered 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 1/3 IP with 4 strikeouts.
Cubs at White Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:02 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | White Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-170) | White Sox -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Cubs at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, White Sox 2
Money line
BET CUBS (+122).
There’s reverse-line movement (RLM) in their direction, the Cubs hit better against right-handed pitching and have a better bullpen than the White Sox.
More than 80% of the action is on the White Sox, per Pregame.com, but their ML has fallen from a -161 opener, which is suspicious, to say the least. This RLM is even more suspect considering the White Sox are 7-1 vs. the Cubs in their last 8 head-to-head meetings.
The Cubs have mediocre advanced-hitting numbers vs. right-handed pitching but the White Sox are dreadful. The White sox rank 26th in wRC+ (84), 27th in wOBA (.279), 26th in BB/K rate (0.29) and 29th in hard-hit rate (25.6%) against righties, according to FanGraphs.
Thompson serves as a “spot” starter, so the Cubs could get 5 or more innings of work from the bullpen, which is their strength. Cubs relievers are 1st in xFIP (3.22), per FanGraphs, and have much better swing-and-miss numbers and contact rates than the White Sox’s bullpen.
BET CUBS (+122).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Cubs +1.5 (-175) is out of my price range, but I wouldn’t rule out parlaying this with another similarly priced line for a better payout. The Cubs are 13-5 RL as road underdogs and the White Sox are just 8-14 RL at home.
Over/Under
LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+105).
There’s RLM headed south of the total, per Pregame.com, Thompson has been dealing this year, the Cubs have a good bullpen and the White Sox lineup has struggled vs. righties.
It’s only a LEAN because the Over is 7-3-1 O/U in their last 11 meetings and we have some money tied up in the Cubs’ ML.
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