The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to the Chase Center Thursday with their season on the brink to play the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT) and Golden State leads 3-1. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas staved off elimination by beating Golden State 119-109 in Tuesday’s Game 4. The Mavs outshot the Warriors from everywhere on the floor and Dallas All-Star Luka Doncic had game-highs in points (30), rebounds (14) and assists (9).
Golden State is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series with a plus-8.2 net rating and the total is 2-2 Over/Under (O/U).
Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Warriors -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Warriors key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Warriors
- F Andre Iguodala (back) out
- SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
- PF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
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Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 109, Mavericks 105
Money line
PASS because Golden State should close this series out at home, but the Warriors (-300) is too pricey for an outright wager.
The bottom line is what the Mavericks (+230) did to get to the Western Conference Finals isn’t working against Golden State. Dallas went small vs. its first 2 playoff opponents and exposed their opponent’s slow frontcourt defense.
When the Mavs go small in this series, the Warriors just crush them in the paint. If defenses are giving up paint points to Golden State then backcourts naturally sag off shooters, which is the worst thing you can do against Warriors guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
That said, the Warriors (-300) isn’t a lock because Luka is good enough to steal one in this series in Golden State and Dallas’s defense is good enough to force the Warriors into an off-shooting night.
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Against the spread
LEAN MAVERICKS +6.5 (-105) because I liked it better at +7 and +7.5 and the winner has covered most games in these NBA playoffs.
But, there’s reverse line movement (RLM) in the betting market headed toward Dallas and elimination games generally play at a slower pace, which leads to reduced scoring margins.
According to Pregame.com, nearly two-thirds of the cash is on the Warriors -6.5 (-120), but they’ve gone from a 7.5-point opening favorite down to the current number. This type of line movement is obviously suspicious because common sense suggests oddsmakers would move the price according to the betting splits.
Lastly, these teams are tied 2-2 in the “four factors” in this series, Dallas’s 3-point shooting can punish Golden State’s zone defense and the Mavs have 2 guards (Luka and SG Jalen Brunson) who can dribble penetrate.
It’s only a LEAN to the MAVERICKS +6.5 (-105) because we are getting to the party a little late on Dallas.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the UNDER 215.5 (-110) because games tend to be lower scoring as a playoff series continues. Also, there’s RLM in the betting market for the total as well since Game 5 opened with a 216.5-point total and has been lowered despite most of the market backing the Over 215.5 (-110).
However, both teams will probably chuck 3-pointers and there’s enough firepower in both offenses to easily go Over the total.
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