The St. Louis Cardinals (24-19) host the Milwaukee Brewers (28-16) Thursday for the start of a 4-game series at Busch Stadium with the first pitch set for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2. St. Louis has a plus-5 run differential in those meetings.
Milwaukee won back-to-back games at the San Diego Padres to win their 3-game series 2-1 and the Brewers are 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games.
St. Louis had its 4-game winning streak snapped in an 8-1 loss vs. the Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday and the Cardinals are 6-4 SU in the last 10.
Brewers at Cardinals projected starters
LHP Eric Lauer vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Lauer is 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 41 2/3 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: Won 7-0 Friday at home vs. the Washington Nationals with 7 scoreless IP, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 4.18 FIP with a .147/.215/.207 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 20.5 K% and 88.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 44 plate appearances (PA).
Wainwright is 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 47 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-3 Friday at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Brewers: Lost 5-1 April 14 in Milwaukee with 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 7 K.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.74 FIP with a .250/.350/.472 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 15.4 K% and 87.3 mph EV in 267 PA.
Brewers at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:23 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Cardinals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers -1.5 (+170) | Cardinals +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Brewers 3
Money line
BET the CARDINALS (-120) because their lineup lights up lefties, Lauer’s numbers dip on the road while Wainwright has a career sub-3.00 ERA (2.85) at home, and St. Louis has a better “simple rating” than the Brewers (+100).
Baseball Reference’s “simple rating system” SRS includes run differential and strength of schedule. Even though the Brewers have a better record than the Cardinals, Milwaukee is 12th in SRS and St. Louis is 6th. There’s value in the Cardinals because they are better than their record indicates.
BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (-120).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Cardinals +1.5 (-210) is way too expensive and their alternate RL is a no-go since Milwaukee’s bullpen is much better than St. Louis’s so there would be a concern the Brewers could sneak in the backdoor.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-105) because the Cardinals are 1st in both wRC+ (147) and wOBA (.377) vs. left-handed pitching (according to FanGraphs) and because most of the market is on the Under 7.5 (-120) but the total hasn’t budged.
Also, the St. Louis bullpen is a little suspect, the Cardinals are 13-6-1 O/U at home, and the Brewers are 13-8-1 O/U vs. NL Central foes.
My favorite play in this game is St. Louis’s ML but there’s value in the OVER 7.5 (-105).
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