The Detroit Tigers (13-25) head to Progressive Field Friday to start a 3-game series with the American League Central co-tenant Cleveland Guardians (16-19). First pitch is 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Detroit lost back-to-back games at the Tampa Bay Rays to lose its 3-game set following a 4-game win streak and is 5-5 overall in its last 10 games. Cleveland is on a 3-game losing skid and is just 4-6 overall in its last 10 outings.
The Guardians beat the Tigers 12-7 in last year’s season series and outscored them 37 runs in those meetings.
Tigers at Guardians projected starters
LHP Tarik Skubal vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5-1, at home vs. the Baltimore Orioles with 6-scoreless IP, 3 H, 2 BB and 11 K.
- 2021 vs. the Guardians: 0-2 with a 6.28 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 15 H, 6 BB and 16 K.
- vs. Guardians on the current roster: 2.33 FIP with a .239/.281/.309 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 24.4 K% and 90.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 41 plate appearances (PA).
Civale is 1-3 with a 9.85 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 24 2/3 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 12-8, at the Minnesota Twins Friday with 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Tigers: 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.66 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 in 3 starts.
- vs. Tigers on the current roster: 3.34 FIP with a .260/.310/.412 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 16.3 K% and 83.4 mph EV in 86 PA.
Tigers at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+160) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 7, Guardians 2
Money line
GIMME the TIGERS (+100) because they have a clear edge over the Guardians in pitching.
Skubal’s FIP is better than his ERA, which suggests he’ll continue to deal, and he grades in the 80th percentile or better in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and four of his five pitches have a minus-run value, per Statcast.
Whereas Civale is in the bottom quarter of the MLB in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, hard-hit rate and EV. Cleveland’s 6-5 overall record vs. left-handed starters is misleading because none of those victories were against “top-of-the-rotation” starters and Skubal has an All-Star-caliber form.
Detroit’s bullpen ranks ahead of Cleveland’s in WAR, FIP, ERA, WHIP and home runs allowed per 9-inning rate, according to FanGraphs.
BET 1 unit on the TIGERS (+100).
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the TIGERS -1.5 (+160), if at all, because this is Detroit’s first game as a road favorite and the Guardians are 6-4 RL as home underdogs.
However, Civale has been dreadful this season — all 3 of his losses were by at least 4 runs — and Cleveland’s bullpen is mediocre this season.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-125) because Cleveland is 6-0 O/U in Civale’s 6 starts and the weather conditions are hitter-friendly. The forecast is predicting temperatures in the mid-to-high-80s and a 20-plus mph wind blowing out to centerfield.
However, it’s only a LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-125) because Skubal is an Ace and Detroit’s lineup is 29th in both wRC+ (79) and wOBA (.273) and dead-last in BB/K rate (0.31), per FanGraphs.
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