The Seattle Mariners (17-22) continue their 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (16-22) at Fenway Park Friday with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston clobbered Seattle in the series opener 12-6 Thursday, but the Red Sox are just 4-6 overall in the last 10 games while the Mariners are 6-4 in the last 10. Red Sox 2B/SS Trevor Story had 4 hits, 3 homers and 7 RBIs in the clubbing.
Mariners rookie OF Julio Rodriguez is coming of age with a .391 average, 2 homers and 3 RBIs in the last 7 days.
Boston’s problems haven’t been at the plate as DH J.D. Martinez (.500-2-5) and 3B Rafael Devers (.480-2-5) have clobbered the ball the last 7 days.
Mariners at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Ray is 4-3 with a 4.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 48 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- Last start: Win, 8-7, at the New York Mets Sunday with 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Red Sox: 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER), 16 H, 4 HR, 9 BB and 27 K in 4 starts.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 6.31 FIP with a .235/.349/.468 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 28.3 K% and 90.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 187 plate appearances (PA).
Wacha is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 26 IP across 5 starts.
- Last start: Win, 4-0, Tuesday vs. the Los Angeles Angels with 5 2/3-scoreless IP, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mariners: 0-2 with a 12.91 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 20 H, 4 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: 5.83 FIP with a .350/.421/.597 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 16.3 K% and 90.4 mph EV in 86 PA.
Mariners at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Red Sox -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+160) | Red Sox +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
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Mariners at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 7, Red Sox 5
Money line
LEAN MARINERS (-103) because they have a 2-phase edge over the Red Sox (-117) in starting pitching and hitting, and their bullpens are essentially even. Also, there’s a line freeze in the betting market as nearly 85% of the cash is on Boston (per Pregame.com), but the line hasn’t budged.
However, Seattle is just 8-15 overall on the road, and the Over is my favorite bet in the Mariners-Red Sox. Wacha is also extremely lucky this season with an astounding .162 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). That is tops in the majors for pitchers with at least 20 innings, per Fangraphs.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Mariners -1.5 (+160) probably shouldn’t be the RL favorite here, and Seattle is just 12-11 RL on the road this year.
Over/Under
BET the OVER 8.5 (-125) because the total is being steamed up by sharp line movement, Mariners-Red Sox is 7-1 O/U in the last 8 meetings in Boston, and Seattle is 5-2 O/U in Rays’ 7 starts.
Also. weather and ballpark conditions are hitter-friendly. Fenway Park was second in run factor last year and is a difficult place for lefties to pitch. Also, the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.
BET the OVER 8.5 (-125).
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