The Seattle Mariners (16-20) meet the Toronto Blue Jays (19-17) Tuesday for the second game of their 3-game series at the Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto won the series opener 6-2 Monday thanks to a quality start by Blue Jays LHP, and former Mariner, Yusei Kikuchi pitched 6-scoreless innings with 1 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
Seattle has alternated between winning and losing over its last 9 games and is just 4-6 overall in its last 10 games. The Blue Jays have lost 7 of their last 10 games and have dropped 4 straight series.
Mariners at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Logan Gilbert vs. RHP Jose Berrios
Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 across 38 IP over 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 4-2, vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday with 5 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 9 K.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 6.10 FIP with a .203/.304/.401 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 27.8 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 18 plate appearances (PA).
Berrios is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 over 34 IP across 7 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5-3, at the New York Yankees Wednesday with 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: 1.95 FIP with a .230/.291/.287 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 34.3 K% and 87.8 mph EV in 35 PA.
Mariners at Blue Jays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:22 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Blue Jays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Mariners at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Blue Jays 2
Money line
BET the MARINERS (+125) because they have an edge in both the starting and relief pitching matchup. The Blue Jays are also struggling at the plate recently and hit worse vs. right-handed pitching.
Gilbert is a young pitcher with nasty stuff who we are buying on a dip since he lost his previous outing, but the Mariners are 4-0 overall in Gilbert’s past four starts as an underdog.
Berrios, on the other hand, grades in the bottom 13th percentile in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, EV, K% and whiff rate, according to Statcast.
The Mariners’ bullpen is 5th in xFIP (3.43) and Toronto’s bullpen ranks 21st in xFIP (3.96), per FanGraphs.
The Blue Jays’ batters are 27th in wRC+ (82), 26th in both wOBA (.280) and WAR (0.5) over the last two weeks. Seattle’s lineup is 8th in wRC+ (114) and 9th in BB/K rate (0.42) whereas Toronto’s lineup ranks 15th in wRC+ (100) and tied for dead-last in BB/K rate (0.28) against righties.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because I’m confident enough in the Mariners +1.5 (-170) outright to not buy their expensive RL insurance even though the Blue Jays are 4-11 RL as home favorites.
Stick with Seattle’s ML.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-102) because the total has been lowered from an 8.5-run opener due to sharp line movement, the Mariners are 7-11 O/U as road underdogs and the Blue Jays are 7-8 O/U as home favorites.
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