The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (2-3) try to keep their season alive when they host the No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (3-2) for Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinals playoff series Thursday. Tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we look at the Suns vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Phoenix took control of this series by blowing out Dallas 110-80 in Game 5 Tuesday. The Suns significantly outperformed the Mavs in 3 of the “four factors” in Game 5. Phoenix All-Star SG Devin Booker scored 28 points on 55.0% shooting and PG Chris Paul added 10 assists.
Dallas All-Star wing Luka Doncic has been the best player in this series, averaging a series-high in points (32.0), rebounds (9.6) and assists (7.4).
The home team has won and covered the first 5 games and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U) in the series.
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:34 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Suns -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mavericks +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread: Suns -2.5 (-108) | Mavericks +2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
Suns
- None
Mavericks
- None
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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 106, Suns 102
Money line
PASS even though I’m on Dallas’s spread because the Suns (-135) are the best “clutch” team in the NBA so I could see Phoenix stealing this one late from the Mavericks (+110).
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Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-112) because they are 4-1 ATS at home in these playoffs and Phoenix’s offense has no-showed in both of their road games in this series.
We can pretty much pencil in Luka’s production and Dallas’s role players have stepped up at home. The Mavs have an absurd 49.9% 3-point attempt rate in the postseason.
Dallas was 6th in defensive rating during the regular season so some of Phoenix’s offensive woes in Games 3 and 4 were caused by the Dallas defense, which should be locked in with its backs against the wall.
Lastly, we’ve seen officiating swing the tide in these playoff games and all 3 of the Mavs’ primary ball handlers (Luka, PG Jalen Brunson and SG Spencer Dinwiddie) attack the paint and get to the foul line.
BET the MAVERICKS +2.5 (-112).
Over/Under
BET a half-unit on the UNDER 211.5 (-115) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for the total. According to Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.
Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, the money column of the betting splits is the sharper side. Also, the oddsmakers are reacting to the money more than the action because the total has been lowered from the 212-point opener.
Furthermore, all 4 referees assigned to Game 6 have officiated more Unders and the officiating crew has a combined 104-140 O/U record this season. Both teams play at a snail’s pace and have elite defenses so if the refs swallow their whistles then this game might not hit 200 points.
However, the Mavs’ guards attacking the basket, Dallas’s 3-point volume and Phoenix’s offensive versatility make the UNDER 211.5 (-115) a tad risky.
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