The Toronto Blue Jays (16-10) start a 4-game series with the Cleveland Guardians (11-13) at Progressive Field Thursday with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto prevented a 3-game sweep by the New York Yankees with a 2-1 win Wednesday but the Blue Jays won their previous 5 series.
Cleveland split a doubleheader Wednesday with the San Diego Padres after sweeping the Athletics in Oakland this past weekend, which followed a 7-game losing skid.
Blue Jays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Jose Berrios vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Berrios (2-0, 4.13 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.58 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across 24 IP.
- Beat the Houston Astros 2-1 Saturday, throwing 5 2/3 IP with 1 ER on 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
- Last year vs. the Guardians: 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 9 H, 3 BB and 12 K across 2 starts.
- vs. Guardians on the current roster: 3.44 FIP with a .295 batting average (xBA), .332 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .442 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 12.5 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 72 plate appearances (PA).
Civale (0-2, 10.67 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.93 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 across 14 1/3 IP.
- Was shelled in a 9-8 win over the A’s Friday with 4 IP, allowing 6 ER on 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 3 K.
- Last year vs. the Blue Jays: Loss, 4-1, 6 IP with 10 H, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB and 1 K in May 2021.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 4.20 FIP with a .261 xBA, .379 xwOBA, .520 xSLG, 7.1 K% and 89.4 mph EV in 14 PA.
Blue Jays at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Blue Jays -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Guardians +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays -1.5 (+110) | Guardians +1.5 (-135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Blue Jays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 4, Blue Jays 2
Money line
LEAN GUARDIANS (+125) only because the Under is my favorite play in this game and Berrios is 3-0 overall in his career at Progressive Field.
However, Civale grades better than Berrios in EV, xwOBA, xSLG and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast.
Cleveland’s lineup is 1st in wRC+ (131) and wOBA (.346) in the MLB versus right-handed pitching.
I give the GUARDIANS (+125) a slight edge in the hitting department since this game is in Cleveland and the Blue Jays’ lineup is stacked.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN GUARDIANS +1.5 (-135) based on the previous analysis and because the Blue Jays are 21-24 as road favorites since the beginning of last season.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because this total is suspiciously low given both starters’ poor pitching peripherals, how many sluggers are in Toronto’s lineup and how well Cleveland’s lineup has hit righties so far this year.
There’s reverse line movement in the betting market for the total as well. More than 90% of the money is on the Over according to VegasInsider.com but this total has crept down from an 8-run opener.
Toronto is 9-17 O/U and the Blue Jays have gone Under the total in 9 straight games as road favorites.
Also, Civale uses more off-speed stuff and Toronto’s previous series was against one of the hardest throwing pitching staffs in the league, the Yankees. The Blue Jays could struggle to square up Civale’s cutter- or curveball-heavy pitch arsenal.
The UNDER 7.5 (-102) is my favorite wager in this game.
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