The No. 1 seed Phoenix Suns (1-0) host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (0-1) Wednesday for Game 2 in the Western Conference semifinals at Footprint Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Phoenix held off a late Dallas surge to win 121-114 in Game 1 and cover as 6-point home favorites. The Suns bodied the Mavs on the glass, grabbing 15 more rebounds (51-36), and had 11 more assists (27-16).
Mavs All-Star Luka Doncic dropped 45 points on 50.0% shooting (15 of 30) with 12 rebounds and 8 assists. Suns All-Star SG Devin Booker nearly notched a triple-double with a 23-9-8 stats line while Suns big Deandre Ayton had a team-high 25 points on 60.0% shooting (12 of 20).
The Suns have beaten the Mavs in 7 straight meetings dating back to the beginning of last season, including the playoffs, and are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
Mavericks at Suns odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Suns -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-120) | Suns -6.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Suns key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Suns
- None
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Mavericks at Suns picks and predictions
Prediction
Suns 110, Mavericks 101
Money line
PASS although I like the Suns (-260) to take a 2-0 series lead over the Mavericks (+205) before heading to Dallas.
On paper, Game 1 looked a lot closer than it was but almost all of the fourth quarter was garbage time and the Suns completely took their foot off the gas.
More importantly, Phoenix’s pick-and-roll (PnR) action is a nightmare matchup for Dallas. The Suns have the highest PnR efficiency through ball handlers in these playoffs while the Mavs have the fourth-worst PnR defensive efficiency against ball handlers.
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Against the spread
BET the SUNS -6.5 (-105) because they created so many easy looks in Game 1 and their defense is way too good for Dallas’s predictable offense.
The Suns would’ve beaten the Mavericks +6.5 (-120) by at least 15 points if it weren’t for Dallas PF Maxi Kleber coming off the bench to sink 5 of 8 on 3-point attempts.
Phoenix’s defensive strategy in Game 1 was to allow Luka to play iso-ball while limiting Dallas role players. Luka had a 42.8% usage rate but a minus-6 net rating and Mavs PG Jalen Brunson struggled versus Phoenix’s elite perimeter defense.
Also, Dallas’s defense has no answer for Suns big Deandre Ayton on defense and cannot play Ayton off the floor as the Mavs did with Utah Jazz C Rudy Gobert in the first round. Phoenix’s perimeter defense isn’t Swiss cheese so Dallas won’t get the same quality of shots it did versus the Jazz last round.
TAKE THE SUNS -6.5 (-105).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 215.5 (-110) because both teams have a below-average pace and free-throw attempt rate in these playoffs and neither turn the ball over much so there shouldn’t be easy points off of turnovers.
On top of that, there’s reverse line movement headed South of the total since the Mavericks-Suns opened with a 216.5-point total and has been lowered even though nearly 90% of the money is on the Over, per Tipico Sportsbook.
Lastly, if the Suns run away with Game 2 as they did with the series opener, which I think they will, then Phoenix will kill the tempo in the fourth quarter and there will be fewer possessions.
For the record, the UNDER 215.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in Game 2 because it feels like the least popular bet in this game and, typically, the road less traveled is where you find profit betting sports.
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