The Chicago Cubs (10-13) host the Chicago White Sox (9-14) Wednesday in the 2-game interleague miniseries finale. First pitch at Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The White Sox won the series opener 3-1 Tuesday, thanks to an awesome pitching performance as 6 Chicago pitchers struck out 12 of the 35 Cubs hitters faced.
The White Sox have won 3 of their last 4 games but are just 4 of their last 10. The Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have lost 3 consecutive series.
The White Sox beat the Cubs in 5 of 6 meetings in 2021 and had a plus-21 run differential in those games.
White Sox at Cubs projected starters
RHP Lucas Giolito vs. RHP Kyle Hendricks
Giolitto (0-1, 2.57 ERA) lost 5-1 to the Los Angeles Angels in his last outing Friday, throwing 6 IP with 3 ER on 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.
- Career vs. the Cubs: 1-3 with an 8.71 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.84 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 4 starts since his 2016 rookie season.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 9.43 FIP with a .299 expected batting average (xBA), .423 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .548 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 30 plate appearances (PA).
Hendricks (1-2, 5.47 ERA) got drubbed Friday in a 11-1 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers, surrendering 6 ER in 4 1/3 IP on 7 H, 3 HR and 2 BB with 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the White Sox: 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 14 H, 3 HR, 5 BB and 11 K in 2 starts.
- vs. White Sox on the current roster: 6.38 FIP with a .307 xBA, .370 xwOBA, .515 xSLG, 13.0 K% and 86.7 mph EV in 123 PA.
White Sox at Cubs odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 p.m ET.
- Money line (ML): White Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Cubs +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox -1.5 (+122) | Cubs +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -122 | U: -105)
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White Sox at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 4, White Sox 3
Money line
BET the CUBS (+122). I give the Cubs a slight edge in the pitching matchup because Giolito’s pitching peripherals versus the Cubs are a lot uglier than Hendricks’ against the White Sox (-150) and the White Sox bullpen may be fatigued.
Hendricks pitches better at home with a 2.91 ERA (3.94 road ERA) and 1.08 WHIP (1.22 road WHIP). Also, the Cubs’ bullpen’s advanced pitching metrics are actually stronger than the White Sox’s and the White Sox bullpen got a lot of work in the series opener.
Furthermore, the Cubs have hit much better against right-handed pitching than the White Sox. The Cubs are ninth in wOBA (.319), 10th in wRC+ (108), according to FanGraphs. While the White Sox are last in both wOBA (.260) and wRC+ (71) and 24th in hard-hit rate (25.6%).
Lastly, the line freeze in the betting market for the game suggests the oddsmakers are begging for more White Sox money. According to Pregame.com, nearly 80% of the action is on the White Sox, but the line hasn’t moved much from the opener.
BET the CUBS (+122).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a “lean” to the Cubs +1.5 (-150) since they are 5-2 RL as home underdogs so far this season.
But the Cubs’ RL price point is a little too pricey and the White Sox -1.5 (+122) are 15-6 RL in interleague games since the beginning of last season.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 6.5 (-122) because both starters are struggling to start the year and don’t have good pitching peripherals versus their respective opponents Wednesday. Also, the Cubs are 4-2-1 O/U as home underdogs and White Sox are 4-2 O/U as road favorites.
However, I cannot fully get behind an Over bet because these teams have a combined 17-26-2 O/U in interleague games since the beginning of last season and the total has been lowered by a sharp line move.
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