The Houston Texans are walking away from a draft that, by all measures, was a huge success for general manager Nick Caserio. It has been almost universally lauded as a B+ or A- draft from pundits and people around the league point to the number of playmakers Houston was able to find.
CB Derek Stingley Jr., LG Kenyon Green, SS Jalen Pitre, WR John Metchie III, LBChristian Harris and possible even 4th round running back Dameon Pierce all project as Week 1 starters for the rebuilding Texans. It was the type of draft that has the potential to be foundational.
Although unlikely to be enough talent to vault Houston into playoff contention in an AFC loaded with playmakers and elite quarterbacks, they’re building something and the direction of the franchise is more clear than it’s been in years.
Houston values people who fit their culture, who want to be in the building and want to work to the standards they’ve established. They clearly value talented football players, taking guys like Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley despite concerns about scheme and fit. They want to play excellent defense and run the ball with great success against opposing defenses.
Above all, the Texans are a team that looks like they want to be competitive. Their off-season signings didn’t address finding starters at key holes as much as signing players to two-year deals that can create a great deal of depth. After the high-caliber rookies and some of the more established veterans, the 2022 Houston Texans are going to rely on getting on the football field and watching who performs best.
Caserio loves competition. They want the team to be in a position where Lovie Smith can be competitive during his third NFL head coaching stint.
There is one facet to competition where the team seems to believe they’re beyond it. The quarterback position. A year ago, facing immense quarterback uncertainty, Caserio said that picking Davis Mills was about creating competition for veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio press conference: 'Davis (Mills) we like the player, we did our research, did our homework. It's about creating competition. That's our philosophy. That was the rationale and impetus for the pick'
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) May 1, 2021
Today, Davis Mills faces no competition or barriers to starting this upcoming for Houston. He’s the unquestioned starter and Houston has assembled a quarterback room of career backups Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskell to serve as essentially camp arms.
Mills had an excellent end to his rookie season where he flashed tools that could make him a viable starter at the NFL-level. Combine his talents with a good degree of continuity with new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton and the new talent from the draft and Mills deserves every opportunity to start this season.
Does Mills deserve the opportunity to start unquestioned after a 4-13 season? It’s an opportunity that is currently being afforded only to Christian Kirksey, Brandin Cooks, Maliek Collins, Jonathan Greenard and Laremy Tunsil. Those players either all have long history of success in the league or have flashed breakout seasons that guarantee continued opportunity.
If Houston is serious about figuring out their roster, in a season that is likely lost already due to talent deficits, they owe it to themselves to employ the same level of scrutiny at quarterback as everywhere else on the roster.
There’s a fascinating market inefficiency that has emerged in the past two months following Houston’s trade of Deshaun Watson that Caserio could potentially look to take advantage of.
Enter disgruntled Browns quarterback, Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield has been absolutely humbled in his NFL experience thus far. A year ago he was a former #1 overall pick who had broken rookie passing records and taken Cleveland to their first playoff win in years. The Browns were set to emerge as one of the forces of the AFC with Baker Mayfield running one of the most talented teams in the conference.
Instead, 2021 was an absolute nightmare season for Mayfield. While the Texans suffered their own form of torture under a 4-13 campaign, Mayfield suffered a shoulder injury that led to some of the worst football of his career. His attempts to play through the injury, rather than creating empathy, only generated more malice towards his pour play on a team that had playoff ambitions.
Cleveland was so convicted in their belief that they could not proceed with Mayfield at the helm that they ultimately dealt 6 draft picks, including 3 first round picks, to Houston for the rights to Deshaun Watson.
Having guaranteed Mayfield’s 5th-year option at the end of 2020, it’s left both the quarterback and the Browns organization in a fascinating position. Mayfield has demanded a trade and expressed the level of hurt he’s experiencing from Cleveland’s decision to move forward. The Browns are saddled with a massive $18-million cap hit from Mayfield that’s preventing them from signing priority free agents around Watson.
The problem is, nobody is interested in Mayfield at that price tag. Teams aren’t interested in an expensive asset who can walk after just one season. A conversation that once asked how much Cleveland could get back for Mayfield has suddenly turned to what will they have to do in order to get rid of their former star.
Reportedly, the price on Mayfield has gone down to a Day 3 (Round 5, 6, or 7) pick with the possibility of Cleveland helping to pay off some of the salary. Once the Carolina Panthers selected a quarterback, the head-on favorites to acquire Mayfield, the market for even this level of deal seems to have dried up.
A quarterback that threw for 3500 yards, 26 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions at a 62% completion percentage in 2020 and is barely 27 years old. Beyond simply being available, this quarterback is now an asset that another team is begging to take away.
Nick Caserio and Houston have a chance here to acquire Mayfield for close to nothing, just a hit on a salary situation in 2022 that is already irrelevant. The quarterback position is the most valuable in the NFL and a sudden market inefficiency exists that Mayfield can be viewed as exclusively a surplus asset.
While Mills deserves to be the favorite and to start in Houston to begin 2022, onboarding Mayfield for nothing would represent a savvy business move and a great insurance policy should Mills get hurt or if he fails to progress a la Drew Lock, in his sophomore campaign.
Mayfield’s stability in the quarterback room, while not greatly enhancing the win total, would ensure the continued development of Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Brevin Jordan if the team meets any unexpected adversity. His presence, if Mills is a franchise quarterback, should elevate the play of everyone in the room and inspire players to bring their best every day.
Mayfield brings a similar mobility to Mills with better arm strength where the playbook wouldn’t have to change. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton is notorious for his ability to bring the best out of his quarterbacks. Mayfield would be coming home to a city where his father played college football and where he grew up nearby in Austin.
The fit is there to onboard a rocky player.
Concerns over personality are legitimate and deserve to be entertained. However, there’s no reason not to think the Houston Texans wouldn’t be getting the best possible version of Mayfield. He’s been humbled, he’s coming home to Texas, and he’s always played his best when facing adversity.
Houston extending a lifeline to Baker would likely be met with gratitude as the quarterback is incentivized to both behave and play his best if he wants to extend his fading NFL career. If Cleveland is as desperate to move off Mayfield as it appears, the price shouldn’t be so great that Houston can’t simply cut bait if the personality fit isn’t there. They haven’t hesitated to do so with players like Zach Cunningham or Anthony Miller.
Davis Mills deserves to start in Houston. He hasn’t earned the opportunity to do so in an uncontested fashion for a team that constantly preaches competition. Baker Mayfield represents an ideal opportunity to exploit a poor market by Nick Caserio. Houston should take the gamble.