The Chicago Cubs (8-12) meet the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers (14-7) for the second of their 4-game series at American Family Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee crushed Chicago 11-1 Friday in the series opener, hitting 6 HR and Brewers starting pitcher Adrian Houser throwing 6-scoreless innings with 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K.
Season series: Tied 2-2 but the Brew Crew has outscored the Cubs 20-19.
Cubs at Brewers projected starters
LHP Justin Steele vs. LHP Eric Lauer
Steele (1-2, 5.40 ERA) lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-3 Sunday, throwing 3 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 2 K. He beat Milwaukee 9-0 April 9, and Steele went 5-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2021 vs. the Brewers: 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 5 ER). 9 H, 6 BB and 9 K across 2 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.10 FIP with a .213 expected batting average (xBA), .266 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .298 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 19.5 K% and 87.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 41 plate appearances (PA).
Lauer (1-0, 2.20 ERA) earned a no-decision in Milwaukee’s 1-0 over the Philadelphia Phillies Sunday with 6 IP, 5 H, 1 BB and 13 K.
- 2021 vs. the Cubs: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-4 loss in September 2021 with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 1.03 FIP with a .230 xBA, .263 xwOBA, .345 xSLG, 32.0 K% and 85.3 mph EV in 25 PA.
Cubs at Brewers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Cubs at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Cubs 2
Money line
LEAN to the BREWERS (-170) because they have a sizeable edge in the starting pitching matchup.
For instance, Lauer’s pitching peripherals (2.61 FIP) line up with his basic numbers (2.20 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and he’s power-ranked as the No. 22 starting pitcher, per Fangraphs, while Steele is 139th in FanGraphs’ starter power rankings and grades out as below-average in many advanced metrics.
But, the Chicago bullpen’s pitching peripherals are identical to Milwaukee’s, and the Cubs (+135) have been more productive at the plate to start the year.
LEAN BREWERS (-170).
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Run line/Against the spread
Slight LEAN to the BREWERS -1.5 (+125) because they’ve beaten the Cubs +1.5 (-155) by at least 2 runs in eight of their last nine meetings.
Also, the Brewers are 52-38 RL versus NL East foes since the beginning of last season while the Cubs are 38-48 RL against their division over that span.
Over/Under
BET the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because Milwaukee’s pitching is phenomenal while its hitting remains subpar and there’s reverse line movement (RLM) headed south of the total.
According to Pregame.com, most of the cash and bets placed are on the Over but the total has been lowered from an 8-run opener.
RLM should be a red flag for any sports bettor because you have to ask yourself “why are the sportsbooks making the more popular side cheaper? Hmm.”
The UNDER 7.5 (-107) is my favorite wager in the Cubs-Brewers meeting.
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