The Toronto Blue Jays (12-6) host the Boston Red Sox (7-11) in the third of their 4-game series at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Toronto took the first two games of this series, first 6-2 Monday then 6-5 in extra innings Tuesday.
Boston has lost 4 in a row and 6 of the last 7 games while the Blue Jays have won 6 of the last 7.
Season series: Toronto leads 4-1 and the Blue Jays have outscored the Red Sox 23-11 this season.
Red Sox at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Ross Stripling
Wacha (1-0, 1.88 ERA) won 4-3 Friday at the Tampa Bay Rays, throwing 5 IP, allowing 2 ER on 3 H and 2 BB with 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Blue Jays: 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 2 BB and 10 K across 2 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- vs. Blue Jays on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .306 expected batting average (xBA), .348 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .478 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 24.2 K% and 89.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 33 plate appearances (PA).
Stripling (0-0, 4.50 ERA) got a no-decision in Toronto’s 4-3 win Friday at the Houston Astros. He went 4 IP, surrendering 3 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 2 K.
- 2021 vs. the Red Sox: 0-2 with a 14.90 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 17 H, 4 BB and 9 K in 3 starts.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster: 5.77 FIP with a .275 xBA, .366 xwOBA, .532 xSLG, 25.3 K% and 89.7 mph EV in 95 PA.
Red Sox at Blue Jays odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:48 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Blue Jays -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Red Sox at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 4
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Red Sox (+120) because I like their first 5-inning RL as my favorite wager in this game so Boston should win this contest outright.
However, the Red Sox’s hitting and relief pitching have struggled out the gate whereas the Blue Jays (-145) are raking at the plate and their bullpen is slightly better by xFIP and ERA.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET 1 unit on the RED SOX +0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RUN LINE (-120) because Wacha’s pitching peripherals versus the Blue Jays are much more impressive than Stripling’s against Boston. Also, Wacha hasn’t been down after the 5th inning in any of his 3 starts in 2022.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-120) because both starters are bottom-of-the-rotation guys and both lineups have mashers. Furthermore, these teams are a combined 6-14 O/U versus division opponents in 2022.
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