The Chicago White Sox (6-6) meet the Minnesota Twins (5-8) Friday for the opener of a 3-game series at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the White Sox vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago has lost 4 consecutive games, recently being swept 3-0 at the Cleveland Guardians Wednesday (doubleheader) and Thursday.
Minnesota prevented a 3-game sweep Wednesday by beating the Royals 1-0 in Kansas City following a 2-2 split of a 4-game series at the Boston Red Sox.
The White Sox won last year’s regular-season series with the Twins 13-6, outscoring Minnesota 123-71.
White Sox at Twins: Projected starters
RHP Michael Kopech vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Kopech (0-0, 1.00 ERA) has 2 no-decisions to start 2022, first throwing 4 IP with 1 ER in a 10-1 win at the Detroit Tigers April 10, then going 5 IP with 0 ER in a 3-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays Saturday.
- Career vs. Twins: 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA (7 IP, 1 ER), 6 H, 3 BB and 8 K over 4 relief appearances and 1 start
Ober (1-1, 3.27 ERA) lost at the Red Sox 8-1 Sunday, working 6 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 2021 vs. White Sox: 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 across 5 starts in his rookie season
- vs. White Sox on the current roster: 4.33 FIP with a .224 batting average, .312 wOBA, .460 expected-slugging percentage (xSLG), 27.4 K% and 93.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 62 plate appearances.
White Sox at Twins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:36 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): White Sox -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Twins -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox -1.5 (+155) | Twins +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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White Sox at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
White Sox 4, Twins 2
Money line
LEAN WHITE SOX (-108).
They’ve been steamed from slight underdogs on the opener up to the current price and they have a significant edge in the pitching matchup.
Ober grades in the 22nd percentile or worse in xSLG, EV, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and expected wOBA, according to Statcast.
Also, the White Sox’s bullpen is 6th in FIP and 7th in home runs allowed per 9 innings, per FanGraphs. Minnesota’s bullpen ranks 28th in both of those respective categories.
However, it’s only a LEAN WHITE SOX (-108) because the Under is my favorite wager in this contest.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m not confident enough in Chicago to sprinkle on White Sox -1.5 (+155). Chicago is 38-44 on the RL versus AL Central foes since the beginning of last season; Minnesota owns a 32-47 RL record vs. the division over that span.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-108) for 1 unit.
Chicago’s lineup has the second-worst wOBA and wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. Minnesota’s lineup is 21st in wRC+ and 23rd in wOBA.
Minnesota is 0-5 O/U in the last 5 games versus a righty starter, the Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 White Sox-Twins meetings and the total has been lowered from 8.5 on the opener by sharp-line movement, according to Pregame.com.
On top of that, the weather forecast is predicting higher than 15 mph winds blowing in from right-center field.
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