The San Diego Padres (4-3) host the Atlanta Braves (3-4) Thursday for the start of a 4-game set at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta lost the rubber match of a 3-game home set versus Washington Wednesday 3-1, but the Braves outscored the Nationals 19-18 in the series.
San Diego dropped its 3-game series at the San Francisco Giants earlier this week despite winning the opener. The Padres were outscored 17-7.
The Braves beat the Padres 4-2 in last year’s regular-season series, outscoring San Diego 27-21.
Braves at Padres: Projected starters
RHP Charlie Morton vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Morton (1-0, 3.38 ERA) picked up a win in his first start of 2022, beating the visiting Cincinnati Reds Friday. He threw 5 1/3 IP with 2 ER on 2 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 victory.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 5.28 FIP with a .235 batting average (BA), .349 wOBA, .591 expected-slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.0 K% and 90.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 60 plate appearances (PA).
Musgrove (0-0, 3.00 ERA) got a no-decision in San Diego’s 5-2 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday. He went 6 IP, surrendering 2 ER on 5 H with 0 BB and 8 K.
- 2021 vs. Braves: No-decision across 5 IP with 3 ER on 7 H, 3 BB and 9 K in 1 home start.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.34 FIP with a .333 BA, .429 wOBA, .503 xSLG, 19.4 K% and 91.3 mph EV in 72 PA.
Braves at Padres odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:47 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+160) | Padres +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Braves at Padres prediction and picks
Prediction
Braves 6, Padres 2
Money line
GIMME the BRAVES (-110) for 1 unit because there’s reverse-line movement (RLM) headed towards Atlanta and I give the Braves the edge in the pitching matchup.
More than 60% of the money is on San Diego, according to Pregame.com, but Atlanta has gone from a slight underdog on the opener to a pick ’em. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular team cheaper.
Morton should have an easy time maneuvering around San Diego’s lineup, which is missing SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (out with a fractured wrist). The curveball is Morton’s second-most thrown pitch and only three Padres had a plus-run value versus curveballs last season, according to Statcast.
Atlanta’s bullpen has looked far better than the Padres’ thus far. The Braves have the fourth-best bullpen FIP and the Padres have the fourth-worst, according to FanGraphs.
ATLANTA (-110) is my favorite wager in this game.
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Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the BRAVES -1.5 (+160) since the payout is so chunky, Atlanta could add to its lead versus San Diego’s struggling bullpen.
Plus, we are seeing the RLM in the RL markets as well (per Pregame.com) since the Padres +1.5 (-200) are the more popular side, but the line is moving away from San Diego.
Again, my favorite bet is Atlanta’s ML but there’s some value in BRAVES -1.5 (+160).
Over/Under
PASS.
This 7.5-run total should be too low considering both lineups’ firepower. But the Over/Under is 4-11 in the last Braves-Padres 15 meetings, Petco is a pitcher-friendly park and we have two “top of the rotation” starters on the hill.
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