Liverpool hosts Benfica at the Anfield Wednesday for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Liverpool vs. Benfica odds and lines, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
Liverpool traveled to Lisbon’s Estadio da Luz last Tuesday and walked away with a 3-1 win over Benfica in the first leg. The F Mohamad Salah-led side scored 2 in the first half and then one in the 5 minutes.
It ended with 17 shots, 8 on target and 68% of the possession. Liverpool then met Man City in a game that undoubtedly will help determine the fate of the EPL. That resulted in a 2-2 draw.
Liverpool is led by an ultra-strong defense that has allowed 22 goals in 31 EPL matches. It has an EPL-high 79 goals as well.
As for Benfica, it did manage 9 shots and 3 on target in the first leg. Benfica sits 3rd in Premiera Liga. It has scored 73 and allowed 29 in 29 league games. Benfica beat Ajax 3-2 in the first round of the knockout stage.
Liverpool vs. Benfica: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Liverpool -380 (bet $380 to win $100) | Benfica +900 (bet $100 to win $900) | Draw +550
- Over/Under: 3.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
[tipico]
Prediction
Liverpool 2, Benfica 0
Money line (ML)
PASS.
Liverpool, even at home, at -380 has no value.
Its motivation may not be there up 3-1 and coasting into the next round. It’s potentially a similar situation we say with Man City at home up 5-0 on Sporting. A draw at +550, at those odds, may give some value.
Given Benfica’s terrific attack and the fact that it was able to get 9 shots on Liverpool in the first leg, I don’t necessarily like the one team not to score at -105 either.
Overall, I’d pass and look towards the total for value.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the UNDER 3.5 (-122).
Given the motivation difference, I think the best play here is the Under 3.5 (-122). Liverpool is coming off a midweek match that it wanted to get out ahead and then a tough battle with Man City.
With both teams having top-tier defenses, ranking in the top 3 in their respective league in opponents’ goals, it should be a different pace, especially as Liverpool clearly will dictate the speed of the game.
Among the 3 matchups in the first knockout stage round that entered the second leg with a 2 or more goal difference on aggregate, only LOSC and Chelsea went Over 2.5 goals. Inter-Liverpool was a 1-0 battle after Liverpool entered with a 2-0 lead.
Before the Man City game this past weekend, Liverpool hasn’t allowed multiple goals to an opponent since Jan. 2. Benfica has allowed multiple goals in UEFA Champions League matches just 4 times in 13 performances.
Put it all together, and the Under is the better play.
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