The San Diego Padres (4-1) meet the San Francisco Giants (2-2) Tuesday in the second of their 3-game set. First pitch at Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego won the series opener Monday 4-2 after scoring 1 run in the 7th and 9th innings to key the victory.
Padres at Giants: Projected starters
San Diego RHP Yu Darvish vs. San Francisco LHP Alex Cobb
Darvish had a no-decision versus the Arizona Diamondbacks on Opening Day despite throwing 6 innings of no-hit ball with 3 K and 4 BB. Arizona scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to steal the game, and Darvish’s victory, 4-2.
- 2021 vs. Giants: 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.20 WHIP and 12.9 K/9 in 4 starts.
- vs. Giants on the current roster: 6.80 FIP with a .243 batting average (BA), .365 wOBA, .485 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.0 K% and 89.2 exit velocity (EV) in 82 plate appearances (PA).
Cobb is making his Giants debut and first start of the season Tuesday. He was 8-3 in 2021 with a 3.76 ERA (93 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 18 starts for the Los Angeles Angels.
- 2021 vs. Padres: Never faced San Diego.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 8.32 FIP with a .260 BA, .368 wOBA, .728 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 95.9 mph EV in 54 PA.
Padres at Giants odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:19 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Giants -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+155) | Giants +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Padres at Giants prediction and picks
Prediction
Giants 4, Padres 3
Money line
BET the GIANTS (-112) because they have better bullpen pitching and are more productive at the plate versus right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last season than the Padres (-108).
Furthermore, nearly three-fourths of the market is on San Diego (according to Pregame.com) primarily because of Darvish’s Opening Day performance and Cobb being at the bottom of San Francisco’s rotation.
However, Cobb had a sneaky impressive 2021 whereas Darvish struggled after the MLB enacted the sticky substance policy. Granted, Darvish was lights out versus the D-backs but Arizona is projected to finish in the cellar of the NL West.
On the other hand, Cobb’s FIP and xFIP were lower than his ERA last season, which suggests progression, and Cobb only allowed 0.48 home runs per 9 innings.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Both pitching units have looked solid to start the season and I’m higher on San Diego than San Francisco entering this season so I don’t want to spend for the expensive Giants +1.5 (-190) RL.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-112) because Cobb is underrated and I’m willing to give Darvish a mulligan for his disastrous 2021.
Also, per Pregame.com, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market with more money coming on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over.
Oddsmakers have reacted to the cash by lowering the total from the 8-run opener and typically it’s wise to follow the money when it’s opposite of the public since wiseguys put up more dough than your average Joe.
That said, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-112) because we are getting to the party a little late on the total and I feel stronger about San Francisco’s ML.
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