The San Diego Padres (3-1) head up to the Bay Area to play the NL West co-tenant San Francisco Giants (2-1) Monday at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego clobbered the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday-Sunday outscoring them 20-11. Padres LF Jurickson Profar hit the cover off the ball with a .400 batting average (BA), 2 HR and 6 RBI versus the D-Backs.
San Francisco eked out a 2-1 series win over the Miami Marlins by winning the rubber match Sunday 3-2 as all three games were decided by 1 run.
The Giants won the 2021 season series with the Padres 11-8 and San Francisco outscored San Diego 92-76.
Padres at Giants: Projected starters
San Diego RHP Nick Martinez vs. San Francisco LHP Alex Wood
Martinez makes his Padres debut Monday and his first MLB start since 2017. He pitched for the Texas Rangers in the first four seasons of his career from 2014 to 2017. Martinez has spent his last four years pitching for the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan.
Wood was 10-4 in 2021 with a 3.83 ERA (138 2/3 IP, 59 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 over 26 starts.
- Wood didn’t face San Diego last season despite playing in the same division.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 2.46 FIP with a .219 BA, .247 wOBA, .342 expected slugging percentage, 25.0 K% and 90.9 mph exit velocity in 36 plate appearances.
Padres at Giants odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:27 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Giants -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-165) | Giants -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Padres at Giants prediction and picks
Prediction
Padres 4, Giants 3
Money line
LEAN PADRES (+125) because who knows how Martinez will look after spending the last four years in Japan. However, I’m seeing some reverse line movement towards San Diego in the betting market.
A vast majority of the action is on the Giants (-155) but their ML price has decreased from the opener according to both Pregame.com and VegasInsider.com, It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular team cheaper.
However, I’m higher on San Diego than San Francisco coming into 2022 and I think we are getting a good price on the PADRES (+125).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because the Padres +1.5 (-165) is too expensive considering the Giants -1.5 (+133) have the second-best RL record versus divisional foes since the beginning of last season at 51-30 RL.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-120) because San Diego’s lineup struggled versus left-handed pitching last season and San Francisco’s bullpen was phenomenal last season.
For instance, the Padres are 24th in hard-hit rate and 20th in wRC+ against lefty pitching since the beginning of 2021. Also, the Giants’ relievers are second in xFIP and sixth in WAR over that span.
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