The San Diego Padres visit National League West co-tenant Arizona Diamonbacks at Chase Field on Opening Day Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Padres beat the D-Backs in last season’s series 11-8 and outscored them 89-86. San Diego was 4-5 in Arizona.
San Diego had a disappointing 2021 with a 79-83 overall record and missing the postseason despite lofty preseason expectations. The Padres collapsed after the All-Star break, going 26-43 in the second half of the season.
Arizona finished in the basement of the NL West at 52-110, 22.5 games behind the fourth-place Colorado Rockies.
Padres at Diamondbacks: Projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner
Darvish gets the Opening Day nod for the Padres. He was 8-11 last season with a 4.22 ERA (116 1/3 IP, 78 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
- 2021 vs. D-Backs: 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA (23 IP, 17 ER), 32 H, 32 K and 4 BB in 5 starts.
- vs. D-Backs on the current roster: 3.95 FIP with a .321 batting average (BA), .384 wOBA, .423 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 29.8 K% and 87.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 114 plate appearances (PA).
Bumgarner is Arizona’s Opening Day starter. He was 7-10 in 2021 with a 4.67 ERA (146 1/3 IP, 76 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.
- 2021 vs. Padres: 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 22 H, 17 K and 4 BB in 3 starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 6.09 FIP with a .233 BA, .339 wOBA, .545 xSLG, 22.5 K% and 90.9 mph EV in 191 PA.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:31 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Padres at Diamondbacks prediction and picks
Prediction
Padres 7, Diamondbacks 4
Money line
LEAN PADRES (-140) because there’s some reverse line movement (RLM) headed towards Arizona, Darvish is a bit of a wild-card entering 2022 and the Over is my favorite wager in this game.
According to Pregame.com, roughly three-fourths of the action is on the Padres but they’ve been lowered from a -150 ML favorite on the opener down to the current number. RLM is a red flag because why would the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper? Hmmm.
Also, after the MLB enacted a sticky substance policy on June 21, 2021, Darvish finished 1-9 with a 6.25 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 53) and allowed 2.2 home runs per 9 innings.
However, I’m expecting a bounce-back year from both Darvish and the Padres. Darvish most likely spent all offseason working on his pitching mechanics in a post-sticky substance MLB. Also, San Diego has far too much talent to repeat 2021’s atrocious performance.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS because I wouldn’t bet the D-backs +1.5 (-140) to cover and San Diego’s ML. For what it’s worth, the Padres were 21-28 RL as road favorites last season and 33-43 RL in division games. While the D-backs were also 33-43 RL versus NL West foes and 31-32 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
BET the OVER 9.5 (-130) since it appears to be the sharp side of the market hence the heavier juice.
Furthermore, there’s a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the total market for Padres-Diamondbacks with nearly two-thirds of the money on the Over but a slight majority of the market being on the Under at the time of publishing, per Pregame.com.
More importantly, we don’t know what form we’ll see out of Darvish and Bumgarner’s stuff has declined since his championship years with the San Francisco Giants.
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