The Dallas Mavericks (47-29) head to the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse Wednesday to play the Cleveland Cavaliers (42-33) at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas has won 4 of the last 5 games — 4-1 against the spread (ATS) — including back-to-back double-digit home victories versus the Utah Jazz Sunday and the Los Angeles Lakers on March 22.
Cleveland snapped a 3-game losing streak by beating the Orlando Magic 107-101 at home Monday. But the Cavs failed to cover as 8-point favorites and are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 games (2-3 overall).
The Cavs crushed the Mavs 114-96 in Dallas Nov. 29. But Cleveland was at full strength while Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic was still playing his way into shape and Dallas was still learning first-year coach Jason Kidd’s system.
Mavericks at Cavaliers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mavericks -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Cavaliers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread: Mavericks -2.5 (-107) | Cavaliers +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Mavericks at Cavaliers key injuries
Mavericks
- G Spencer Dinwiddle (knee) out
Cavaliers
- C Jarrett Allen (finger) out
- PF Evan Mobley (ankle) out
[tipico]
Mavericks at Cavaliers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 113, Cavaliers 107
Money line
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Maverick because I’d much rather need Dallas outright than have to sweat a cover.
My buy-price for the Mavs’ ML is -140, at which point I’d pass on Dallas’s spread. That said, the Mavs are 13-3 straight up (SU) as road favorites and the Cavs are 4-9 SU as home underdogs.
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Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS -2.5 (-107) for 1 unit because they already had a much better backcourt and the Cavaliers +2.5 (-115) are missing several bigs so Dallas should own the glass Wednesday.
For instance, the absence of Allen, Mobley and PF Dean Wade means Cleveland will rely on a 3-guard lineup featuring All-Star PG Darius Garland, newly acquired SG Caris LeVert and second-year SG Issac Okoro.
Dallas can counter with Luka and combo guard Jalen Brunson but will be without newly acquired Spencer Dinwiddie. The Mavs’ recently formed 3-guard lineup had been more efficient thus far than Cleveland’s.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Dallas has a plus-5.8 adjusted net rating with Luka, Brunson and Dinwiddie on the floor, which would grade in the 81st percentile of all 5-man lineups. Cleveland’s 3-guard lineup with Garland, LeVert and Okoro has a plus-3.9 adjusted net rating (73rd percentile of all 5-man lineups), per CTG.
Furthermore, this is a better spot for the Mavs who are 10-6 ATS as road favorites with a plus-4.9 ATS margin and 8-4 ATS as 3-to-4.5-point favorites.
Finally, the market could be overreacting to Dallas being in the second of a back-to-back. The Mavs throttled the Lakers Sunday and Luka didn’t even play in the fourth quarter so Dallas isn’t exactly on tired legs.
BET the MAVERICKS -2.5 (-107).
Over/Under
PASS even though my prediction is well Over the projected score because there’s reverse line movement heading south of the total and these teams have a combined 28-42 O/U record when playing teams with a winning record.
According to Pregame.com, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over but the total has been lowered from the 214-point total down to the current number. It’s a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper so this total feels like a trap line.
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