Expectations for LSU are about as high as they come for a first-year head coach entering into 2022. Though the team went just 6-7 in a 2021 campaign that resulted in the firing of coach [autotag]Ed Orgeron[/autotag] just two years removed from a national title, fans — understandably — expect better this time around.
The main reason for that is the latest “big fish” that athletics director [autotag]Scott Woodward[/autotag] managed to bring to Baton Rouge: coach [autotag]Brian Kelly[/autotag].
Kelly was the winningest coach in Notre Dame history, and he made the (mostly) unprecedented decision to leave one college football blue-blood for another. He’s coached in a national title game and made the College Football Playoff twice, and he came to LSU to win a championship.
He inherits a roster with some holes but also a lot of talent, and many expect the team to improve quite a bit in Year 1. Many, but not all. ESPN’s David Hale sees the Tigers as a team that is likely to underachieve.
Here’s a stat that shouldn’t be too surprising. In 2019, LSU averaged 3.5 points per drive against Power 5 opponents — essentially a TD every other drive. In no other year since 2014 have the Tigers averaged more than 2.4. Indeed, since 2008, LSU averages just a tick more than 2 points per drive, 2019 excepted. The point here is that the national championship season was an anomaly, and the job Kelly inherits is far bigger than people think. In fact, LSU has been pretty lucky over the past two seasons. Of the Tigers’ 11 wins, six came by a TD or less. Given the tough competition in the SEC West, it’s entirely reasonable to think LSU isn’t going to be much better than last year’s 6-6 regular-season record, which probably isn’t what LSU fans want to hear after hiring Kelly away from Notre Dame.
A lot of Hale’s points make sense. Even a seasoned and successful coach like Kelly can’t fix all of this program’s problems in Year 1, and that national championship season feels like a distant memory.
Still, I would argue this team’s ceiling is a bit higher than Hale intimates. The Tigers have a lot of intriguing options at quarterback, including a pair of players with starting Power Five experience in veteran [autotag]Myles Brennan[/autotag] and Arizona State transfer [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag].
If they can figure it out at that position, the rest should fall into place given the talent at the skill positions. That’s not to say this team has no holes, though. Offensive line and several spots on defense have major question marks heading into next season.
But this team has the talent to be quite a bit better than .500, especially with a number of solid additions through recruiting and the transfer portal. It would be wise to keep expectations in check, but this team should improve in Kelly’s first season.
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