Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (37-25) host the Golden State Warriors (43-19) for these teams’ second meeting in the last five days. Tip-off at American Airlines Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Mavs rallied back from a double-digit deficit to stun the Warriors 107-101 in Golden State Sunday by outscoring them 33-13 in the fourth quarter. Dallas is 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) versus Golden State this season.

The Mavs are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS since the All-Star break with their latest game being a 109-104 road victory over the Lakers Tuesday.

The Warriors are 1-2 SU and ATS following the All-Star Game and got crushed 129-114 by the Timberwolves Tuesday in Minnesota. Golden State SG Klay Thompson has missed the past two games, both Warriors losses.

Warriors at Mavericks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Warriors +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mavericks -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Warriors +1.5 (-107) | Mavericks -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Mavericks key injuries

Warriors

  • PF Draymond Green (back) out
  • SF Andre Iguodala (back) out
  • SG Klay Thompson (illness) probable

Mavericks

  • None

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Warriors at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Mavericks 108

Money line

I’ll fade the alleged early sharp line move towards the Mavericks and SPRINKLE on the WARRIORS (+105). 

Dallas opened up as +110 underdogs (according to Pregame.com) and has been steamed up to a favorite despite no new information. The only new intel the market has is the possible return of Thompson.

My takeaway from this initial line movement is the public and even wiseguys are overreacting to the Mavs’ stunning upset of the Warriors in Golden State this past weekend.

However, the Warriors held a 21-point lead during that game and thumped the Mavs 130-92 in their previous meeting, Jan. 25. If Golden State doesn’t pee down its leg, the Warriors handle business against the Mavs.

Dallas also might have pulled out a close game with Golden State the other night, but the Mavs are 28th in “clutch” net rating in the NBA at minus-19.9 while the Warriors are eighth in “clutch” net rating at plus-8.8. “Clutch” is defined by games within a 5-point margin inside of five minutes to play.

Golden State’s spread is the sharper play but I like the value of the WARRIORS (+105).

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Against the spread

The WARRIORS +1.5 (-108) is my favorite wager here because I could see this game coming down to the final possessions and maybe the 1.5 points worth of insurance pays off.

Furthermore, there’s a “Pros vs. Joes scenario in the betting market as a slight majority of the cash is on Golden State but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on Dallas, according to VegasInsider.com. Typically, it’s wise in sports betting to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

For the record, the WARRIORS +1.5 (-108) is my best bet in this game.

Over/Under

PASS.

I “lean” towards the Over 219.5 (-108) because the Warriors-Mavericks are 11-4 O/U in their last 15 meetings.

However, I don’t have a strong enough conviction on the Over and all three of the referees in this crew has officiated more to the Under.

Dallas is also 5-15-1 O/U as a home favorite and these teams have a combined 21-34 O/U record versus teams with a winning record.

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