There are many ways to analyze football. All of them can be important if used correctly. All of them can also be used primarily to push agendas, as well. In many ways, that has led to the conversations between “tape” study and “analytics” study to making decisions.
The Cleveland Browns have been at the center of that discussion starting with the hiring of Paul DePodesta and Sashi Brown years ago. They pivoted to “football guy” John Dorsey before finding a middle ground, at some level, with Andrew Berry.
Brown’s recent return to the NFL as the president of the Baltimore Ravens seems to validate Cleveland’s decision to hire him years ago.
One way that data can be used inappropriately is when it comes to rushing attempts. Often, teams winning games will run the ball late in the game to help burn time off the clock. That can lead to the incorrect statement that “teams win by running the football.” What is more true is that “winning teams run the football.”
One way data is evaluated to try to help address is to look at what is expected to happen on a certain play. For example, on 3rd and 1, a run is expected. On 3rd and 15, a pass is expected based on recent trends.
With that in mind, a data set showed us that balanced offenses, that do what is expected, barely made the playoffs this year in the NFL. Instead, 10 of the 14 playoff participants passed the ball more often than expected. The other four teams ran the ball more often than expected:
Here are the final game-script-adjusted pass rates for each team.
Very interesting to see that 10 of the top 12 pass-heaviest offenses made the playoffs. But also 4 of the Bottom 7. pic.twitter.com/kb4oWvMIFT
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) January 13, 2022
Figuring out the “why” behind the data is the tough thing for NFL teams. Not every team can just decide to throw the ball at the level of Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Buffalo. In the same way, not every team can decide to run the ball at the rate of San Francisco, Philadelphia and Tennessee.
While it is obvious that passing the ball is the best way of making the playoffs and Super Bowl in the last decade, teams like the Cleveland Browns may not be set up to win that way. Instead, perhaps, the Browns must take the more difficult path to win despite running the ball more often than expected. In fact, running it more than they did last year.
For the 2021 season, there were 13 more balanced offenses between Arizona and New England that didn’t make the playoffs. For Cleveland, seeking balance may not be the answer. Going all in as a running team or taking a huge swing in the other direction to throw more often seems to be the answer.