The Denver Nuggets (28-21) stop by Target Center Tuesday to play the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-25) at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Denver is on a five-game win streak with the latest being a 136-100 beatdown of the Bucks in Milwaukee Sunday. The Nuggets are 8-2 straight-up (SU) but just 4-5-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 10 games.
Minnesota stopped its two-game losing skid by crushing the Utah Jazz 126-106 Sunday. The T-Wolves are 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
These teams are both 1-1 SU and ATS in their first two meetings this season with the road team winning and covering each contest.
Nuggets at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:26 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Timberwolves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Nuggets +4.5 (-115) | Timberwolves -4.5 (-107)
- Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Nuggets at Timberwolves key injuries
Nuggets
- C Nikola Jokic (toe) questionable
- PG Jamal Murray (knee) out
Timberwolves
- SG D’Angelo Russell (shin) questionable
- PG Patrick Beverley (ankle) questionable
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Nuggets at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Timberwolves 122, Nuggets 110
Money line
PASS.
I’m on Minnesota to win outright but the Timberwolves (-180) is too rich for my blood considering we don’t know the official starting lineups yet. For what it’s worth, Denver is 7-8 SU as a road underdog and Minnesota is 11-4 SU as a home favorite.
Against the spread
BET the TIMBERWOLVES -4.5 (-107) because based on the line movement and some simple logic, I’m anticipating the Nuggets will be without the reigning MVP Jokic.
Denver opened up as a 3-point underdog but that number has increased up to the current price after Jokic randomly landed on the injury report.
The Nuggets are in the front end of back-to-back games and play the Utah Jazz Wednesday in a primetime game so I’m gambling that they’ll rest Jokic tonight and have him suit up against Utah.
The absence of Jokic in this game would be massive. Jokic is arguably playing better this season compared to his MVP turn last season and has the best on/off net rating in the NBA.
T-Wolves C Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best bigs in the league and Minnesota is third in offensive rebounding rate. Not having Jokic available means KAT should feast on Denver’s interior and the Nuggets’ rebounding rates plummet when Jokic is off the floor.
There’s also a chance Minnesota gets good injury luck if Russell returns to action. The T-Wolves score 12.6 more points per 100 possessions when Russell is on the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG) and he grades in the 94th percentile of point guards in adjusted on/off net rating (per CTG).
BET the TIMBERWOLVES -4.5 (-120) for 1 unit.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 229.5 (-115) for a one-third unit because my favorite play is Minnesota laying the points.
However, Denver is 8-2 O/U in the last 10 games, Minnesota is 7-1 O/U in its last eight as a favorite and the Nuggets are fourth in 3-point shooting in January while the T-Wolves are 28th in defensive 3-point percentage.
The T-Wolves should be able to score a bunch of easy points off of turnovers Denver is 21st in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) whereas Minnesota is second in defensive TOV% and first in points off of turnovers per game.
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