The Dallas Mavericks (27-20) drop by Chase Center Tuesday to play the Golden State Warriors (34-13) at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas bounced back from a loss to the Phoenix Suns Thursday to crush the Memphis Grizzlies 104-91 as a 4-point home favorite Sunday. The Mavs are 5-1 straight-up (SU) over their last six games.
Golden State has won back-to-back games over the Houston Rockets Friday and the Utah Jazz Sunday. However, the Warriors are 4-4 SU over the last two weeks.
The Mavs upset the Warriors 99-82 as 4.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season Jan. 5 on the night of former Mavs great Dirk Nowitzki’s jersey retirement ceremony.
It was Dallas’s third straight victory over Golden State and the seventh in their last eight meetings. The Mavericks are 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games versus the Warriors.
Mavericks at Warriors odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Warriors -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-110) | Warriors -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Mavericks at Warriors key injuries
Mavericks
- None.
Warriors
- SG Klay Thompson (knee) questionable
- PF Draymond Green (back) out
- SF Andre Iguodala (hip) out
- C James Wiseman (knee) out
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Mavericks at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 105, Warriors 101
Money line
SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) because Dallas plus the points and is the sharper play so we should be hitting that harder.
However, Mavs All-Star G Luka Doncic has played very well versus the Warriors, while Golden State’s G Steph Curry is playing against a sneaky good Mavericks defense and has been terrible this month.
Luka is averaging 28.4 points per game (PPG) on 63.7% true shooting (.485/.434/.763) with 7.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists and a plus-12 net rating in his 11 career games against the Warriors.
On the other hand, Curry is averaging 20.8 PPG on 50.0% true shooting (.359/.299/.885) and a minus-5 net rating in 11 games in Jan.
Dallas is also first in non-garbage time defensive rating this month, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Another reason I like the Mavericks in this spot is that they have been red-hot in Jan. Dallas is 10-2 SU, second in adjusted net rating and first in ATS margin at plus-5.6 in Jan.
On top of that, the Warriors have been underperforming expectations this month, especially considering Klay returned Jan. 9. Golden State is 7-6 SU, 13th in adjusted net rating and 24th in ATS margin at minus-3.0 in Jan.
Klay hasn’t really brought much to the table yet and the Warriors are missing two core pieces in Iguodala and Green.
Klay has a minus-0.9 adjusted on/off net rating in 126 minutes played but Iguodala has a plus-3.1 and Green has a plus-3.9 adjusted on/off net rating, per CTG.
The bottom line is the Warriors aren’t the Warriors currently and Dallas is clicking on all cylinders. Again, only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+130) with the plan of betting more on their spread.
Against the spread
Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of their money line.
Golden State is just 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine games, Dallas is 7-3 ATS on the road versus teams above-.500 and, again, has the best ATS margin in Jan.
For the record, the MAVERICKS +3.5 (-110) is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 211.5 (-115) for a small wager, if at all, because the Warriors are 7-16-2 O/U at home with a minus-8.7 total margin and the Mavs are 9-13-1 O/U with a minus-5.3 total margin on the road.
That said, both teams obviously have a lot of firepower and the Over has cashed in 10 of the past 13 Mavericks-Warriors meetings.
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