This very well could be the last NFL game for Ben Roethlisberger.
The venerable Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback helped guide his team to an unlikely playoff berth, but the dangerous Kansas City Chiefs stand in their path in a wild-card matchup Sunday at 8:15 p.m. EST at Arrowhead Stadium.
On the surface, the Steelers’ chances don’t look great. After all, Pittsburgh’s offense has dropped from 18th to 28th in the league in offensive DVOA since Week 10 of the regular season. Also, the Chiefs beat the Steelers, 36-10, in Week 16 despite playing without star tight end Travis Kelce.
The Steelers (9-7-1) are 12½-point underdogs against the Chiefs (12-5), according to Tipico Sportsbook.
Although the Steelers have a tall task ahead, it seems as if Roethlisberger enjoys the underdog role. He led the league with six comeback wins and seven game-winning drives this season. Roethlisberger further fed the underdog narrative with an interesting quote earlier this week.
“We’re probably not a very good football team,” Roethlisberger said. “Out of the 14 teams that are in, we’re probably No. 14. We’re double-digit underdogs in the playoffs. So, let’s just go play, have fun and see what happens.”
A team with nothing to lose can be dangerous in the playoffs, so let’s break down the game film to determine what the Steelers need to do to have a chance Sunday in Kansas City.
The stat that jumps out from the Week 16 matchup is turnovers. Pittsburgh committed three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception), with Roethlisberger accounting for two of them, while the Chiefs didn’t turn the ball over. The Steelers must protect the football to have a chance on Sunday.
That said, Roethlisberger likely will have to make some tough throws. In Week 16, Chiefs ran a number of two-high safety coverages, and Roethlisberger did a great job attacking the open gaps in the second level.
Roethlisberger is known for putting the ball where only his receivers can get it, and he will need to play near-perfect football in order to control the game.
In the clip below, when the Cincinnati Bengals successfully moved the ball against the Chiefs’ safeties in Week 17, multiple defenders show frustration as they throw their hands in the air.
It’s no secret that the Chiefs secondary has had trouble with communication when it comes to concept routes on the outside.
We shouldn’t expect these throws all game, but Roethlisberger will have to put a few over the Chiefs’ linebackers, targeting Chiefs safeties Juan Thornhill and Daniel Sorensen to have a chance for big plays downfield.
This brings us to the next area where the Chiefs allow their defense to become exposed. Against the Bengals, wideout Ja’Marr Chase was left alone on the outside and subsequently made several plays deep downfield.
The Steelers will have to replicate a few of these plays that the Bengals pulled off in Week 17, isolating the Chiefs’ cornerbacks on the outside.
In the last matchup, Steelers receivers Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool combined for 10 receptions for 92 yards. They will have to greatly increase that production with catches similar to the one below if they want to stay competitive with the Chiefs’ high-octane offense.
If Steelers can win their matchups on the outside, it should help open up the ground game with Najee Harris — and tackling hasn’t exactly been a strong point for the Chiefs over the past few weeks.
Case in point: Chase’s 72-yard touchdown reception when the Chiefs and Bengals played in Week 17.
The Steelers also have players who excel in racking up yards after the catch. Johnson and Harris both rank among the top 11 in the NFL in yards after the catch.
If the Steelers can limit turnovers and pull off some big plays with Claypool, Johnson and tight end Pat Freiermuth, they have a chance to make this a competitive game. And the longer they can control the clock and keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes‘ hands, the better.
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