The Dallas Mavericks (18-18) host the Denver Nuggets (18-16) Monday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Denver has won three consecutive road games, going 2-1 against the spread (ATS). The Nuggets won at the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.
Since Dec. 22, the Nuggets are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 2-3 ATS and 1-4 O/U with the 13th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-1.3 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Dallas has won back-to-back road games, winning at the Sacramento Kings 112-96 Friday and, in PG Luka Doncic‘s return, at the Oklahoma City Thunder 95-86 Sunday.
Since Dec. 21, the Mavs are 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 10th-best non-garbage time net rating at plus-10.0 points per 100 possessions.
This is the regular-season rubber match between these teams as the home side won and covered the first two meetings with the O/U going 1-1.
Nuggets at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:34 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Mavericks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-105) | Mavericks -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Nuggets at Mavericks key injuries
Nuggets
- SF Vlatko Cancar (nasal fracture) probable
- PF Jeff Green (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Bones Hyland (health and safety protocols) questionable
- PG Monte Morris (health and safety protocols) out
Mavericks
- PG Trey Burke (health and safety protocols) out
- C Boban Marjanovic (health and safety protocols) out
- PG Frank Ntilikina (thigh) questionable
- PF Kristaps Porzingis (health and safety protocols) out
- G Isaiah Thomas (health and safety protocols) out
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Nuggets at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 107, Nuggets 102
Money line
PASS with a “lean” to the Mavericks (-150) because I only “lean” toward Dallas laying the points and would much prefer to bet the Mavs outright.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the MAVERICKS -2.5 (-120) because they are a lot healthier than the Nuggets.
Don’t sleep on the absence of Morris for Denver. He is second on the Nuggets in adjusted on/off net rating at plus-14.5 points per 100 possessions (per CTG), which grades out in the 95th percentile of point guards.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 213.5 (-115) for 1 unit because there’s some reverse line movement in the betting market of the total.
According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over in this game, but the total has been lowered from 214 on the look-ahead line.
Both teams rank in the bottom 10 of points per game, the top 10 of points per game allowed and the bottom eight of pace.
Also, Dallas has gone Under the total in its past seven games as a favorite and Denver have gone Under the total in four of its past five games overall.
UNDER 213.5 (-115) is my favorite wager in this game.
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