Week 17 is nearly completed —barring Monday night’s game between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers — so we have a better understanding of what the playoff picture looks like with one week left. Following Sunday’s narrow victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Los Angeles Rams are 12-4 and are the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
With one week remaining in the regular season, ESPN’s Seth Walder determined that the New Orleans Saints are the most likely opponent for the Rams in the wild-card round, with FPI giving this matchup a 40% chance of happening.
Most likely wild card round matchups, per FPI:
Bucs-Eagles, 80%
Cardinals-Cowboys, 70%
Patriots-Bengals, 41%
Saints-Rams, 40%
Patriots-Bills, 33%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 3, 2022
As of this moment, the Saints are on the outside looking in with an 8-8 record. Given the odds of Los Angeles meeting New Orleans in the first round, it’s expected that the Rams defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18 and the Saints win their game against the Atlanta Falcons, propelling New Orleans to the No. 7 seed.
Los Angeles has lost five consecutive games to San Francisco, so taking down their divisional rivals will be easier said than done. And there have been crazier upsets than Atlanta over New Orleans this season, making for an interesting finish to the regular season.
If we do get a matchup between the Rams and the Saints, we’ll undoubtedly hear people mention the outcome of the NFC Championship Game from 2019 where there was a missed pass-interference call on Nickell Robey-Coleman. Los Angeles has won five of its last seven meetings with New Orleans, including three of the last four.
Things are subject to change, but it appears that the Saints are tracking to be the team the Rams face to begin the postseason.