The top two teams in the West meet Christmas day when the Phoenix Suns (26-5) host the Golden State Warriors (26-6) at the Footprint Center. The tip-off is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Suns odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State has won back-to-back games entering Saturday over the Sacramento Kings 113-98 Monday and the Memphis Grizzlies 113-104 Thursday.
The Warriors are 5-2 straight-up (SU), 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the 14th-ranked non-garbage time net rating (minus-0.1 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Phoenix is on a five-game winning streak with the latest being a 113-101 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites.
The Suns are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS and 3-3-1 O/U in the last 14 days with the second-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-15.2 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.
These teams split the first two meetings of the season with the home team winning and covering both games and the Under is 2-0 in those contests. However, Golden State was at full strength for both meetings.
Warriors at Suns odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Warriors +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Suns -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +5.5 (-105) | Suns -5.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 215.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Warriors at Suns key injuries
Warriors
- SF Andre Iguodala (knee) questionable
- SG Jordan Poole (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Andrew Wiggins (health and safety protocols) out
- SF Damion Lee (health and safety protocols) questionable
- SG Klay Thompson (Achilles’) out
Suns
- None.
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Warriors at Suns odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Suns 112, Warriors 104
Money line
PASS despite Phoenix being the right side because the Suns (-240) is too expensive in this spot. I’m laying the points with Phoenix but wouldn’t be shocked if Stephen Curry erupted on Christmas even though Chris Paul is one of the better defenders of Curry in the Association (more on that below).
Against the spread
The elephant in the room here is the absence of Golden State’s second-and third-leading scorers in Poole and Wiggins.
Also, Phoenix All-Star guard Devin Booker exited the first Warriors-Suns meeting in the second quarter with a hamstring injury that kept him sidelined for seven games. This was a major reason why Golden State beat the brakes off Phoenix in the second meeting just three days later.
Furthermore, as previously mentioned, CP3 has always made life difficult for Curry. In fact, Curry has scored less than 30 points in 11 straight games vs. CP3 and Paul holds a slight career-scoring edge over Curry in their 34 career head-to-head games at 21.1-20.9 points per game.
Finally, Golden State tends to be careless with the rock: Ranking 29th in offensive turnover rate and 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game. Whereas Phoenix is ball hounds: Ranking eighth in defensive turnover rate and seventh in points off of turnovers scored per game.
The bottom line is the SUNS -5.5 (-120) will be able to dictate the pace and get into their offense easier than the Warriors +5.5 (-105) because of their edge in the ball security department.
BET the SUNS -5.5 (-120) for 1 unit.
Over/Under
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 217.5 (-108) since these teams are ranked first (Golden State) and second (Phoenix) in defensive rating and the Under has cashed four of their last five meetings.
However, both teams play at a top-10 pace, and both certainly have the offensive efficiency to push this game Over the total.
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