Play design, not analytics, doomed Ravens’ two-point attempt vs. Packers

Analytics didn’t stop the Ravens from beating the Packers on Sunday night. A flawed play design doomed Tyler Huntley outside of the numbers.

You’ve undoubtedly heard more about analytics in the NFL over the last week than you’d prefer. Following Chargers head coach Brandon Staley trying to convert fourth down after fourth down last Thursday, converting two of five attempts in a 34-28 overtime loss to the Chiefs, everybody on both sides of the argument were loaded for bear. Either old-school football cavemen didn’t understand the analytical argument in favor of going for it on fourth down, or new-school nerds weren’t up with the realities of the game.

It has been tiresome, no matter which side you’re on. And on Sunday night against the Packers, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh was going to extend the debate with the decision to try a two-point conversion with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Baltimore was down 31-30 with 42 seconds left after scoring two unanswered touchdowns in the last five minutes of the game. They could have kicked the extra point and headed to overtime, or they could have tried to win it right there.

We all know what happened.

Huntley rolled to his right, tried to hit tight end Mark Andrews at the end of the end zone, and the Packers prevailed. It was the second time in three games that Harbaugh had tried a late two-point attempt, and it was the second time his team was unable to convert. That led to losses to the Packers last night, and to the Steelers in a 20-19 heartbreaker in Week 13.

Harbaugh was unapologetic after the fact.

“Yes, we were just trying to go get the win right there,” Harbaugh said about trying to steal the win from the Packers in regulation, as opposed to giving Aaron Rodgers another shot. “In overtime… I think our chances of winning right there were a little bit higher than in overtime, maybe, if you calculate it out. I felt good about it. I thought we had a good play. Again, they made a really good play. I have to give that safety a lot of credit for getting out there and tipping that ball.”

Harbaugh wasn’t wrong about the decision, per se. The problem was the failed play call.