The Milwaukee Bucks (18-10) head to Beantown Monday for a 7 p.m. ET game with the Boston Celtics (13-14) at TD Garden. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Celtics odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Over its last seven games, Milwaukee is 5-2 straight-up (SU), 2-5 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the seventh-best non-garbage time-efficiency differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
The Bucks most recently steamrolled the New York Knicks 112-97 Sunday as 6-point favorites at Madison Square Garden.
Boston lost four of five on its current five-game Western Conference road trip (2-3 ATS) including three straight, falling to the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns. The Celtics are 14-13 ATS and 11-15-1 O/U with the 13th-ranked efficiency differential.
Bucks at Celtics odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bucks -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Celtics +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -1.5 (-110) | Celtics +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Bucks at Celtics key injuries
Bucks
- None
Celtics
- PG Marcus Smart (illness) probable
- SG Josh Richardson (health and safety protocols) out
Bucks at Celtics odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Celtics 115, Bucks 109
Money line
“LEAN” to the CELTICS (-120) only because they have struggled when playing tougher competition.
The Celtics are 3-6 SU with a minus-5.7 points per 100 possessions and a minus-3.4 ATS margin when playing teams in the top-10 of net rating (according to CTG).
However, Boston is getting All-Star SG Jaylen Brown back from a five-game absence due to a hamstring injury and the Celtics match up well vs. the Bucks.
Both teams play a ton of iso-ball and Boston is a little more efficient offensively in isolation sets and a lot better defensively.
Milwaukee’s defense has the second-worst efficiency vs. iso-ball and Boston’s defensive ranks fifth in efficiency against isolation offense.
The Bucks get out into transition at the fifth-highest rate in the NBA, but the Celtics are fourth in efficiency vs. transition offense. Also, Milwaukee’s offensive efficiency in the fast break only grades in the 31st percentile.
Over the past three seasons, Boston is 19-10-1 ATS with a plus-5.6 ATS margin when playing with a rest advantage.
The Celtics have covered four straight vs. the Bucks, with three outright victories and are 6-1 ATS in their past seven meetings.
I’d argue that these ATS trends apply in this section because the game is priced as a coin flip.
Finally, the oddsmakers opened this game with Boston as a slight favorite before the market instantly started betting Milwaukee’s money line.
I’d assume by tip-off, the House will be rooting for the CELTICS (-120) and, typically, we want to be on the same side as the House in sports betting.
Against the spread
PASS since Boston +1.5 (-110) doesn’t offer much insurance for our Celtics money line wager.
If the Celtics’ spread gets steamed up to +2.5 or greater then I’d wager more on Boston plus the points and “sprinkle” on the Celtics’ money line.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-108) because Bucks-Celtics games are typically high scoring – the Over has cashed in six straight meetings.
However, we are getting the worst of the number hence the “lean.” The game opened with a 218.5-point total and was steamed up abruptly. I don’t have a strong enough read on the total to chase value in this spot.
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