The Minnesota Timberwolves (11-12) host the Atlanta Hawks (12-12) Monday at Target Center for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Hawks vs. Timberwolves odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Atlanta has lost three of its last four games (1-3 ATS), all at home, to the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets. The Hawks are 10-14 ATS and 12-12 O/U with the ninth-best net rating.
Minnesota is on a two-game losing skid, both on the road, with losses coming against the Washington Wizards and Brooklyn Nets. The T-Wolves are 11-12 ATS and 9-14 O/U with the 12th-best net rating.
The Hawks have beaten the T-Wolves in five of their last six meetings (5-1 ATS) including both regular-season games last season. The Over cashed in four of those six contests.
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Hawks at Timberwolves odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Hawks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Timberwolves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +2.5 (-108) | Timberwolves +2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Hawks at Timberwolves key injuries
Hawks (not officially submitted)
- SF Cam Reddish (illness) questionable
- SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) out
- SF De’Andre Hunter (wrist) out
Timberwolves
- PG Patrick Beverley (groin) questionable
- PG D’Angelo Russell (ankle) questionable
- C Karl-Anthony Towns (back) questionable
- SF Jaden McDaniels (illness) probable
Hawks at Timberwolves odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Timberwolves 112, Hawks 107
Money line
GIMME the TIMBERWOLVES (-140) because the T-Wolves currently have three starters listed as “questionable” on the injury report. I’d rather be stuck with Minnesota’s money line than need it to win by at least 3 points. However, there are several reasons to like the T-Wolves in this spot.
Atlanta struggles against good defenses and Minnesota ranks fifth in defensive efficiency according to CleaningTheGlass.com.The Hawks are 2-6 overall with a minus-5.8 efficiency differential and minus-3.3 ATS margin versus top-10 defenses.
The T-Wolves also perform better at home and the Hawks worse on the road. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and is 10th in efficiency differential and seventh in ATS margin at home this season per CleaningTheGlass.com.
Furthermore, the Hawks are 4-8 overall on the road with the 19th-best efficiency differential and 26th-best ATS margin.
This is a bad spot for Atlanta. The Hawks are 6-12 overall when playing with a rest disadvantage, and 7-13 overall on the second of a back-to-back, since the start of last season.
Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Timberwolves -2.5 (-112) because they should cover the spread if they win outright. However, as previously mentioned, the money line holds more value for me because of Minnesota’s injury report.
For what it’s worth, there’s “reverse line movement” in Minnesota’s direction despite the lengthy injury report. The T-Wolves opened as 2-point favorites but are getting steamed up despite the unknown game statuses of several starters.
Over/Under
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 222.5 (-110) because this is a Pros vs. Joe’s game with the presumed sharp side of the market backing the Under whereas more bets are placed on the Over according to Pregame.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the cash when it’s opposite the public.
However, Minnesota’s money line is by far my favorite wager in this contest and if you do bet the Under, I’d go light.
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